The first half of August proved extremely unfavorable for the ruble: the national currency noticeably declined, and the dollar updated multi-month highs. By August 17, the American currency jumped to 85.4 rubles — its best level since late March, while the euro reached 99.2 rubles, marking a five-month peak. However, ahead of September, analysts' opinions diverge dramatically: forecast ranges span from a moderate ruble strengthening to 82–86 per dollar to a risk of the pair collapsing to 93.5 rubles.
Pressure and Support Factors
The ruble's weakening in August was driven by a set of factors that, judging by all appearances, will remain relevant in September as well. First and foremost, this concerns the Finance Ministry's operations under the budget rule, which drain liquidity from the market, as well as high geopolitical risks and sanctions pressure. The reduced inflow of export revenue to the domestic market and rising import volumes also played their part, creating a persistent supply-demand imbalance.
August's key problem is the gap between revenue earned by exporters and its actual arrival on the market. Even with expensive oil, when Brent trades above $90 per barrel, currency sales by exporters remain minimal. At the same time, the Finance Ministry is actively buying currency, which only exacerbates the situation. In less than a month, the ruble lost nearly 6% against the dollar, and this despite oil quotes remaining at high levels.
Forecasts: Three Scenarios
Financial analyst Alexander Potavin (Finam Group) believes that in September some correction in favor of the ruble is possible. Support for the Russian currency could come from expensive oil, high real rates on ruble instruments, and seasonal factors. However, he notes that August has historically been negative for the ruble, and the current month is unlikely to be an exception. That said, if the Finance Ministry adjusts the parameters of currency operations and reduces purchase volumes, this could become a driver for strengthening. His baseline forecast for September: dollar — 82–86 rubles, euro — 94–99 rubles, yuan — 12.1–12.8 rubles. By year-end, he expects the dollar around 87 rubles and the euro near 101 rubles.
Mikhail Zeltser (BCS World of Investments) draws attention to the fact that the dollar/ruble pair remains in an upward summer trend. After updating annual highs above 85 rubles, a technical pullback below 83 rubles followed, but in September quotes may once again test summer peaks. The dollar will be supported by Finance Ministry purchases, low currency sales volumes by exporters, and geopolitical tensions, which traditionally push market participants toward buying safe-haven instruments.
Dmitry Alexandrov (AVI Capital) adheres to a more pessimistic scenario. He allows that with a deterioration in the trade balance and stronger outgoing cross-border capital flows, the pair could move to 93.5 rubles per dollar. At the same time, he expects the euro/dollar pair to fluctuate in the range of 1.14–1.19, which adds uncertainty to ruble forecasts.
My view: The spread of forecasts reflects not so much uncertainty as fundamentally different approaches to assessing the actions of the regulator and the Finance Ministry. I consider the baseline scenario to be the preservation of current levels with a slight bias toward ruble weakening, since structural imbalances are unlikely to be eliminated within a month. However, if the Central Bank or the Finance Ministry takes more decisive steps to stabilize the market, we could see a rapid strengthening toward the lower boundary of the 82–83 ruble range. Watch for signals from the regulator — they will be decisive.