The commodity market is entering the autumn period with high volatility. After a recent surge to the $95 per barrel mark, profit-taking has begun, and now the key question is whether the bullish momentum can hold. My analysis shows that in the coming weeks, prices will remain in a wide range of $80–96, with the direction of movement to be determined by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Technical levels and upside scenario
The August rally, which pushed prices to $95, has every chance of evolving into a September continuation if there is no de-escalation of the conflict. The technical picture points to the potential for testing the $96 level as early as the start of autumn. However, with any positive signal from the region, I expect strong support at the round $90 mark, which will act as a kind of "anchor" for buyers.
Base case: consolidation around $90
A more moderate forecast suggests fluctuations within ±10–15% of current values, i.e., roughly around $90 per barrel of Brent. The market has already adapted to the constant geopolitical backdrop, and inventories in consumer countries allow for calmly offsetting temporary supply shortfalls. This means that without sharp external shocks, we are more likely to see sideways movement rather than a directional trend.
Lower end of the range
Some experts are factoring in a more conservative scenario—$80–90 per barrel by the end of the third quarter. Such a range is realistic if tensions in the Persian Gulf begin to subside. The United States, it seems, has shifted to a strategy of "war of attrition," applying maximum economic pressure on Iran. This somewhat reduces the likelihood of a direct military clash, but it cannot be completely ruled out—Tehran has already threatened to attack vessels beyond the Gulf.
At the same time, there is virtually no hope for a quick resolution of the conflict: the minimum demands of the parties do not align, and the likelihood of agreements is extremely low. This will keep supply under pressure, but it is precisely the existing reserves that shield the market from a collapse or an uncontrolled spike.
My verdict: in autumn, oil will trade in a wide corridor, where $90 is the psychological center of gravity. For traders, this means the need to trade off levels rather than direction, closely watching every geopolitical headline. In current conditions, underestimating the risk of sharp moves in either direction is the main mistake.