Active operations by the U.S. Treasury with government bonds and a coordinated intervention in the yen with the Bank of Japan have exposed the fragility of the U.S. debt structure. Against this backdrop, the dollar is weakening, while gold and cryptocurrencies are absorbing a significant portion of the freed-up liquidity. This is not just market noise—it is a structural shift that paves the way for new all-time highs.
Target range: from $4,770 to $5,000
The experts I surveyed diverge in their assessments of the gold ceiling for the fall, but agree on the main point: dollar weakness and strong demand from central banks support the precious metal. The target range is from $4,770 to $5,000 in the coming months. This is not about a consensus, but a range where each scenario has its own drivers.
Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research at AVI Capital, notes that the U.S. Treasury's attempts to buy back long-term bonds and reverse the rise in yields have not yet brought much success. Together with the intervention in the yen, which prevents a sell-off of U.S. securities from the Japanese central bank's reserves, this has highlighted the precariousness of the U.S. debt structure, especially given the persistent budget deficit.
"As a result, the dollar has weakened, and gold and cryptocurrencies have risen significantly. A large portion of liquidity has flowed into these assets—primarily into gold, but not only," Alexandrov emphasizes. A potential downgrade of Germany's credit rating, as warned by S&P, could attract some liquidity from its debt securities into U.S. ones. But overall, in the expert's assessment, this will negatively impact how major global investors perceive the government debt segment and will also support gold.
Alexandrov sees a fork in the road. The first scenario is a return to normalcy and a long-term decline in gold to $2,300–2,400. The second is a repeat of the late 1970s and a move to $10,000–12,000 within a couple of years. The indicator will be the dynamics of global budget deficits, money supply in major currency zones, and inflation. For now, he expects an attempt to test $4,900–5,000 before the end of the fall.
Overbought conditions require a correction
Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS Mir Investments, reminds that in August gold broke its multi-month downtrend. From the month's lows, the metal gained nearly 20%, reaching $4,700. "After such a rally, the asset has become overbought, and a correction is now needed. At the same time, new highs targeting $4,770 are possible in early fall," he notes. Zeltser cites the weakness of the global dollar, caused by the U.S. Treasury's start of buying up significantly cheaper bonds, as a factor of strength. Gold and dollar exchange rates move in opposite directions, so the weakening of the American currency works in favor of the metal.
Central bank demand pushes the price up
Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at FG Finam, links the renewed growth in gold to dollar weakness. Demand from central banks remains high, he adds. "There is an opinion that China is buying the metal in significantly larger volumes than official statistics reflect. At Finam, we are generally optimistic about this asset and believe the price could continue to rise," says Dudchenko. He allows that in September, optimists may try to reach the $4,800–4,900 level per troy ounce. Much here will be determined by the Fed's actions: if the U.S. regulator does not pursue monetary tightening, it will support prices for precious metals and push them higher.
My conclusion: the gold market is currently at a unique bifurcation point. Dollar weakness and growing imbalances in the global debt system are creating a powerful headwind for fiat currencies, and gold is the main beneficiary. For crypto investors, this is a signal: if gold moves to $5,000, bitcoin, as a digital analogue of a "hard asset," could receive an even stronger impetus. Watch the dollar's dynamics and the Fed's actions—these are the key triggers for the coming weeks.