September in commodity markets begins with a high degree of uncertainty. Crude oil prices, after a rapid August rally, have entered a correction phase, and now the key question is where the price will go in the coming weeks. My analysis aligns with the assessments of leading experts: we can expect a wide trading range, bounded by $80 and $96 per barrel, with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East being the decisive factor.
Technical levels and fundamental drivers
The recent approach to the $95 mark was impressive, but it was followed by a predictable profit-taking. This is a classic pattern after a sharp vertical move. The market is now balancing between fears of conflict escalation and hopes for de-escalation. From a technical standpoint, the $96 level looks like the nearest target for the bulls if the geopolitical backdrop remains tense. At the same time, in the event of positive signals, support at the round $90 level will become critical—this is where the strength of the current uptrend will be tested.
However, fundamental factors should not be overlooked. Raw material inventories in consumer countries are at sufficient levels to offset temporary supply disruptions. This serves as a kind of "safety cushion" that keeps prices from more dramatic spikes. Even amid ongoing tensions, the market appears to have adapted to living with elevated risk.
Scenarios and forecasts
The consensus forecast among my colleagues is as follows: the baseline scenario for the end of the third quarter is for prices to remain in the $80–90 per barrel range. This assumes that the current supply-demand balance will hold and that the geopolitical situation will not develop radically. However, if the Middle East conflict escalates into a hot phase, we could see a test of the $96 level and beyond. Unfortunately, the likelihood of a swift peaceful resolution is assessed as extremely low—the parties' positions are too far apart, meaning supply in the market will remain constrained.
My view: the oil market right now is a classic game of nerves. There is no clear trigger for a breakout of the range, but there are also no reasons for a collapse. Investors should prepare for volatility and avoid opening positions without a clear stop-loss order. In such a situation, it is better to stay on the sidelines or use short-term fluctuations within the outlined corridor.