Active operations by the U.S. Treasury in the Treasury bond market, along with a coordinated intervention in the yen with the Bank of Japan, have exposed the fundamental fragility of the American debt structure. Against this backdrop, the dollar continues to weaken, and the freed-up liquidity is increasingly flowing into safe-haven assets—primarily gold and, notably, cryptocurrencies.
My surveys among leading market experts show that a consensus on gold for the fall has formed, although target levels vary. The range of targets is from $4,770 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the coming months. At the same time, everyone agrees on the main point: dollar weakness and unprecedented demand from global central banks will continue to push the metal higher.
Dmitry Alexandrov: a fork between $2,400 and $12,000
Head of Analytical Research at AVI Capital, Dmitry Alexandrov, notes that the Treasury's attempts to buy back long-term bonds and reverse the rise in yields have not yet succeeded. Together with the intervention in the yen, which prevents the sale of U.S. securities from the Japanese central bank's reserves, this has highlighted the precariousness of the U.S. debt structure, especially given the persistent budget deficit.
"As a result, the dollar has weakened, and gold and cryptocurrencies have risen significantly. A large portion of liquidity has flowed into these assets—primarily gold, but not only," the analyst emphasizes. A potential downgrade of Germany's credit rating, as warned by S&P, could attract some liquidity from its debt securities into U.S. ones. However, overall, the expert assesses that this will negatively impact the perception of the government debt segment among major global investors and will also support gold.
Alexandrov sees two scenarios. The first is a return to normalcy and a long-term decline in gold to $2,300–2,400. The second is a repeat of the late 1970s and a move to $10,000–12,000 over a couple of years. The indicator will be the dynamics of global budget deficits, money supply in major currency zones, and inflation. For now, he expects a test of the $4,900–5,000 level by the end of fall.
Mikhail Zeltser: overbought conditions require a correction
Stock market expert at BCS Mir Investitsy, Mikhail Zeltser, reminds that in August, gold broke a multi-month downtrend. From the month's lows, the metal gained nearly 20%—to $4,700. "After such a rally, the asset has become overbought, and a correction is now needed. At the same time, new highs targeting $4,770 are possible in early fall," he notes. Zeltser cites the weakness of the global dollar, caused by the U.S. Treasury's start of buying up significantly cheaper bonds, as a factor of strength. Gold and dollar rates move in opposite directions, so the weakening of the American currency works in favor of the metal.
Nikolay Dudchenko: central bank demand pushes the price up
Analyst at FG Finam, Nikolay Dudchenko, links the renewed growth in gold to dollar weakness. Demand from central banks remains high, he adds. "There is an opinion that China is buying the metal in significantly larger volumes than official statistics reflect. At Finam, we are generally optimistic about this asset and believe the price could continue to rise," the expert says. Dudchenko suggests that in September, optimists may try to reach the $4,800–4,900 level per troy ounce. Much here will be determined by the Fed's actions: if the U.S. regulator does not pursue monetary tightening, this will support precious metal prices and push them higher.
My analytical conclusion: Gold is at a unique bifurcation point. On one hand, fundamental drivers—de-dollarization, rising government debt, and geopolitical instability—play in favor of the "bulls." On the other, technical overbought conditions and a possible tightening of Fed rhetoric could trigger a correction. For investors, this means one thing: volatility will be high, and diversification between gold and digital assets is becoming not just a strategy, but a necessity.