The first half of August proved extremely unfavorable for the Russian currency, and now there is rare consensus in the market regarding the causes, but not the consequences. Forecasts for September have diverged dramatically: from quite comfortable levels of 82–86 rubles per dollar to alarming scenarios with the pair moving to 93.5 rubles. Let's examine which factors will dominate and where the equilibrium point lies.
The key driver of the ruble's weakening in August was the Ministry of Finance's operations under the budget rule. The agency is actively withdrawing currency from the market, which, combined with reduced sales by exporters, creates an acute supply shortage. At the same time, Brent oil prices remain steadily above $90 per barrel, but this positive factor does not reach the domestic currency market. The gap between export revenue earned and its actual arrival on the exchange is the main structural problem putting pressure on the ruble.
Finam: Expecting Correction and Strengthening
In my estimates, there is a high probability of some ruble strengthening in September. A number of factors that worked against the Russian currency in August may weaken. First of all, this concerns the Ministry of Finance's operations — if purchase volumes decrease, it will relieve some of the pressure. Support will come from high real ruble rates, which continue to attract investors, as well as the seasonal factor and the end of the summer vacation period. Historically, after elections at various levels, the ruble has more often strengthened than weakened, but a repeat of this scenario is not guaranteed. My baseline forecast for the dollar in September is a range of 82–86 rubles, for the euro — 94–99 rubles, and for the yuan — 12.1–12.8 rubles.
BCS: Uptrend Remains
Contrary to expectations of a correction, the technical picture for the dollar/ruble pair remains bullish. The summer uptrend is not broken, and after updating annual highs above 85 rubles, only a slight pullback to below 83 rubles followed. In September, we may well see a retest of the summer peaks. Pressure on the ruble will come from the Ministry of Finance's currency purchases, minimal sales volumes from exporters, and lingering geopolitical risks, which historically push market participants toward buying safe-haven instruments.
AVI Capital: Negative Scenario on the Table
The most pessimistic scenario assumes a deterioration in the trade balance and increased capital outflow. Under such a development, the euro/dollar pair will fluctuate in the range of 1.14–1.19, and the dollar against the ruble could move to 93.5 rubles. This is a risk that cannot be ruled out, especially if we see further tightening of sanctions pressure and problems with cross-border settlements.
My view: the market is at a bifurcation point. The key indicator for me is the behavior of exporters. If they begin to increase currency sales at current oil prices, the ruble will receive strong support. If not, the negative scenario will become the primary one. In such conditions, investors should avoid excessive confidence in forecasts and hedge currency risks.