The active operations of the U.S. Treasury to buy back government bonds, as well as the coordinated intervention in the yen with the Bank of Japan, have exposed a fundamental vulnerability in the U.S. debt architecture. The dollar is losing ground, and the freed-up liquidity is increasingly flowing into safe-haven assets — gold and cryptocurrencies.
Against this backdrop, the experts I interviewed agree on the main point: the dollar's weakness and sustained demand from global central banks continue to push the precious metal higher. The target range for the coming months is from $4,770 to $5,000 per troy ounce, with some scenarios suggesting far more ambitious levels.
Dmitry Alexandrov: A fork between $2,400 and $12,000
Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research at AVI Capital, notes that the Treasury's attempts to buy back long-term bonds and reverse the rise in yields have not yet produced tangible results. Combined with the yen intervention, which prevents the sale of U.S. securities from the Japanese central bank's reserves, this has only underscored the fragility of the structure. Given the persistent budget deficit, pressure on the dollar will only intensify.
As a result, the dollar weakened, while gold and cryptocurrencies rose significantly. A large portion of liquidity has flowed into these assets — primarily gold, but not exclusively.
A potential downgrade of Germany's credit rating, as warned by S&P, could attract some liquidity from its debt securities into U.S. ones. However, overall, this will negatively impact how major global investors perceive the government debt segment and will also support gold. The analyst then sees a fork: the first scenario is a return to normalcy and a long-term decline in gold to $2,300–2,400; the second is a repeat of the late 1970s and a move to $10,000–12,000 within a couple of years. The indicator will be the dynamics of global budget deficits, money supply in major currency zones, and inflation. For now, Alexandrov expects a test of $4,900–5,000 before the end of autumn.
Mikhail Zeltser: Overbought conditions require a correction
Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS Mir Investments, reminds that in August, gold broke its multi-month downtrend. From the month's lows, the metal gained nearly 20% — up to $4,700.
After such a rally, the asset became overbought, and a correction is now needed. At the same time, new highs targeting $4,770 are possible in early autumn.
Zeltser cites the weakness of the global dollar as a factor of strength. It was triggered by the U.S. Treasury's start of buying up significantly cheaper bonds. Gold and dollar rates move in opposite directions, so the weakening of the U.S. currency works in favor of the metal.
Nikolay Dudchenko: Central bank demand pushes prices higher
Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Group, links the renewed rise in gold to the dollar's weakening. Demand from central banks remains high, he adds.
There is an opinion that China is buying the metal in significantly larger volumes than official statistics reflect. At Finam, we generally take an optimistic view of this asset and believe the price could continue to rise.
Dudchenko suggests that in September, optimists may attempt to reach the $4,800–4,900 level per troy ounce. Much here will be determined by the Fed's actions. If the U.S. regulator does not pursue a path of monetary tightening, this will support precious metal prices and push them higher.
My conclusion: we are witnessing a classic scenario of flight from fiat risks. Until the Fed changes its rhetoric, gold remains the main beneficiary of debt market instability. Cryptocurrencies, in turn, are increasingly seen as a digital analogue of gold, which strengthens the correlation between these assets in the current cycle.