The artificial intelligence market in Russia is undergoing a fundamental shift. According to my analysis of data from the fintech service "Pay Around the World," in July the share of cardholders paying for AI services reached 51.6%. In other words, every second user paying by card has already included neural networks in their monthly budget. The average spending amount was 2,097 rubles.
It is telling that users are not collecting a "zoo" of dozens of subscriptions. Contrary to expectations, the average amount per payment—1,905 rubles—almost exactly matches the price of a basic plan from a major chatbot, including taxes. 74.3% of payers limit themselves to one service, and another 23.9% use two or three. Only 0.1% pay for seven or more products, but it is this microscopic group that accounts for about 1% of all AI spending. On average, there are 1.35 services per person, and this figure has been stable for six months.
Market structure: mass users versus enthusiasts
Of particular interest is the segment of "heavy" users. One in seven (15.2%) spends more than 10,000 rubles per month on AI, while providing 57% of the total turnover. For them, this is no longer entertainment but a working tool. They prefer pay-as-you-go models rather than fixed plans, which explains their disproportionately high contribution to total revenue.
From March to July, AI service turnover grew 3.85 times, and the number of payers grew 3.45 times. At the same time, average spending per person remained almost unchanged: 2,178 rubles in March versus 2,097 in July. The market is growing in breadth, not depth: the influx of new users, rather than increased spending by existing ones, drives the main momentum. This confirms the hypothesis that AI has ceased to be a purchase for enthusiasts and has become a routine expense item, similar to streaming services.
Macro context: business demand and chip shortages
Consumer spending is just the tip of the iceberg. According to my estimates, the total AI market in Russia grew by 29.7% in 2025, reaching 316.1 billion rubles, and by 2030 the baseline scenario suggests growth to 830 billion. Corporate demand is shifting toward foreign solutions: on the Yandex AI Studio platform, clients spent 597 billion tokens in the first half of the year—18 times more than a year earlier, with Chinese models Qwen, GLM, and Kimi leading the way.
However, reliance on external models runs into a shortage of computing power. GPUs are not produced domestically, so authorities are preparing tax incentives for the purchase of AI equipment and seeking ways to separate AI hardware from mining equipment. MWS AI and Rubytech have already tested systems on eight Chinese GPUs as a replacement for Nvidia, with commercial launch scheduled for 2027. Still, a complete displacement of Nvidia should not be expected: software maturity and service support will take years. In parallel, the state is building frameworks for model access to budget funds, requiring confirmation of compliance in independent laboratories—thus forming a dual demand circuit: mass subscriptions from below and a regulated corporate-government segment from above.
My conclusion: The AI market in Russia is entering a phase of maturity. The stability of the average check amid explosive growth in the number of payers suggests that we are witnessing not a speculative bubble but the formation of a sustainable consumer habit. The key risk remains infrastructural dependence, which could become the main brake on further scaling.