The Bank of Russia has presented an updated version of its Main Directions of Monetary Policy, and this document is a real treasure trove for understanding how the regulator views the next four years. The key signal: under any scenario — whether in the Russian or global economy — monetary policy will be aimed at maintaining price stability. At the same time, the effect of changes in the key rate, according to the Central Bank's assessment, does not materialize instantly but with a lag of 3–6 quarters. This is an important nuance for anyone trying to guess the rate trajectory after each meeting.
Separately, it is worth noting a technical but significant innovation: from now on, rate decisions will take effect not on Monday but on the Wednesday following the board of directors' meeting. The meetings themselves, as before, will be held on Fridays. A minor detail, but it speaks to the regulator's desire for greater predictability and smoothing of market reactions.
Four scenarios: from a soft landing to a severe storm
The regulator traditionally offers not one but four development scenarios, and the spread between them is enormous.
The baseline scenario assumes a gradual reduction of the rate from current levels: to 14.5–14.6% in 2026, 10.5–12.5% in 2027, and 8–9% by 2028. Inflation should slow to 6–7% next year and reach the 4% target by 2027. GDP growth is expected in the range of 0–1% in 2026, followed by acceleration to 1.5–2.5%.
The disinflationary scenario is more optimistic for borrowers. The rate could drop to 9–11% in 2027, and inflation to 3–4% already in 2027. However, there is a nuance here: faster cooling of prices may be accompanied by less confident economic growth.
The pro-inflationary scenario is already an alarming signal. Here, the rate remains in the range of 13–15% in 2027, and inflation is in no hurry to return to the target, lingering at 4.5–5.5% in 2027. This is a scenario in which the regulator will have to maintain tight conditions for longer.
Finally, the risk scenario is the darkest. In it, the Central Bank allows for a rate increase to 19–21% in 2027, inflation at 11–13%, and even a recession: a GDP decline of 3–4% in 2027. This is a stress test for serious external or internal shocks, and fortunately, it is not the baseline.
Fiscal impulse and cash: new pressure factors
Separately, the Central Bank notes that fiscal policy will remain a key factor influencing the economy, and its impulse in the coming years will be stronger than previously assumed. This means that to compensate for government demand amid limited resources, more restrained dynamics in other components of domestic demand will be required. Simply put, there is less room for policy easing than one would like.
The dynamics of cash are also curious: the volume of cash in circulation in the first half of 2026 turned out to be higher than in the same periods of 2024–2025. The regulator attributes this to lower deposit rates and citizens' desire to have "liquid" money in case of disruptions to cashless payments. The Central Bank considers this process natural and sees no contradiction with the long-term trend toward reducing the share of cash.
My view: the publication of these scenarios is not just a formality. The market has received a clear signal: the Central Bank is ready for any turn, but its main priority is not growth but inflation control. Even in the baseline scenario, the rate will remain above 10% until the end of the decade, which will put pressure on the stock market and the lending market. Investors should build the baseline scenario into their models but keep the risk scenario in mind — as insurance against a black swan.