The Bank of Russia has presented an updated draft of the Main Directions of the Unified State Monetary Policy, and this is perhaps the most important document for understanding the trajectory of ruble liquidity in the coming years. The regulator did not just provide forecast figures — it effectively outlined the boundaries within which the Russian economy will exist under any scenario. The key message: policy will remain tight, and the priority is price stability, regardless of the external environment.
New procedure: the rate will "kick in" on Wednesday
The first and extremely important change is technical, but with far-reaching consequences. The regulator is changing the effective date of the new key rate level. Previously, board of directors decisions took effect the following Monday, but now they will take effect on Wednesday. At first glance, this is a minor detail, but in reality it is a signal to the market of a more rapid response to changes in the environment. Meetings will still be held on Fridays, but the Central Bank itself emphasizes: the effect of a rate change on demand and prices does not appear instantly, but with a lag of 3–6 quarters. This means that current decisions are about managing inflation in 2026–2027, not about immediate adjustment.
Four scenarios: from disinflation to shock
In the baseline scenario, the Central Bank expects the rate to decline from current levels to 14.5–14.6% in 2026, followed by a move toward 10.5–12.5% in 2027 and reaching 8–9% by 2028. Inflation should slow to 6–7% next year and reach the 4% target by 2027. GDP growth in 2026 is forecast in the range of 0–1%, which already indicates significant cooling.
The disinflationary scenario assumes a faster return of prices to target — already in 2027 inflation could be 3–4%, and the rate 9–11%. This is an optimistic option that implies successful containment of overheated demand.
The pro-inflationary scenario is a world where the rate remains high for a long time: 13–15% in 2027 and 11–12% in 2028. Here, the Central Bank factors in inflation of 4.5–5.5% in 2027, indicating a prolonged battle with prices.
Finally, the risk scenario is the most alarming. In it, the rate soars to 19–21% already in 2027, and inflation accelerates to 11–13%. The economy meanwhile slips into recession: GDP contraction of 3–4% in 2027 and another 1.5–2.5% in 2028. This is a scenario of systemic shocks materializing, including external restrictions and fiscal imbalances.
Fiscal impulse and cash: new pressure factors
I would separately note that the Central Bank has revised its assessment of the fiscal impulse upward. This means that the state's contribution to aggregate demand will be higher than previously assumed, which automatically narrows the room for monetary policy easing. In addition, the regulator records an unusual increase in cash in circulation in the first half of 2026 — higher than in the comparable periods of 2024–2025. This is linked to declining deposit rates and citizens' desire to keep liquidity "on hand" in case of disruptions in non-cash settlements.
My view: the market should prepare for a prolonged period of high rates. Even in the baseline scenario, we will not see a rate below 10% until 2028, and the risk scenario with 21% is not a theoretical abstraction but a real action plan in case of escalation. For investors, this means that "expensive money" will stay with us for a long time, and strategies based on cheap leverage will lose. The crypto market, as a high-risk asset, will be especially sensitive to movements in ruble liquidity in such an environment — the outflow of capital from risky instruments will continue.