After an impressive August rally, when Bitcoin recovered three months of declines in just two weeks, the market enters September with trepidation. The key trigger for a possible correction has been hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve Chair, which instantly reshaped investor expectations. The probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has jumped from 45% to 60%.
In his recent analysis, well-known crypto trader Coin22 presented a detailed forecast, highlighting a specific date that will be decisive for the fate of the first cryptocurrency. This refers to the options expiration on September 25, when the quarterly block of contracts with an open interest of about $12 billion expires. However, to understand the full picture, it is necessary to consider the entire calendar of events.
Why September Frightens the Market
For the first time in 11 years, Bitcoin has broken the tradition of closing August in the red after U.S. midterm elections. The asset rose by approximately 28% and surpassed the $80,000 mark. However, September historically remains the second worst month for BTC and one of the weakest for the entire U.S. stock market. Analysts attribute this to the "September effect": the closing of the third quarter, funds preparing for tax payments, and portfolio rebalancing create downward pressure.
Powell's rhetoric at the Jackson Hole symposium has only heightened uncertainty. The labor market remains resilient, corporate capital expenditures are rising, and inflation, according to the preferred PCE index, is still nearly double the 2% target level. The regulator is clearly in no hurry to ease policy, which strengthens the dollar and increases the appeal of government bonds, forcing investors to demand a higher risk premium on stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Key Dates and Levels
The first half of the month will be packed with important macroeconomic reports: labor market data on September 1 and 4, the producer price index on September 10, and, most importantly, consumer inflation (CPI) on September 11. This report will be the main driver of volatility. The Fed meeting on September 16 is unlikely to trigger a sharp reaction if the market has already priced in a rate hike in advance.
My base scenario is consolidation in the range of $74,000–75,000 (lower bound) and $80,000–84,000 (upper). There simply won't be enough catalysts for a move to $100,000 in September. At the same time, I do not expect a sharp crash. However, the options expiration on September 25 is a separate story. The structure of open interest indicates that many traders are pricing in a drop to $70,000, which sets the stage for heightened volatility and false breakouts in the second half of the month.
If CPI comes in weaker than expected and ETFs do not show major outflows, Bitcoin could quickly return to the $80,000–84,000 zone. But if inflation surprises again, the probability of a rate hike will rise to 70–80%, and then losing support at $74,000–75,000 will open the door to a correction toward the $70,000–72,000 area.
My verdict: September will be a month of sideways movement with a bearish bias in the first half and an attempt at recovery in the second. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility around September 25, when options expiration could trigger sharp moves. Don't build long-term forecasts based on seasonality—over the past three years, September has closed in the green, breaking the historical pattern.