This week, the crypto community is actively discussing negotiations between Hyperliquid Labs and Payward, the parent company of the Kraken exchange. The talks center on a potential entry of the popular derivatives platform into the U.S. market. The scheme being developed involves using the infrastructure of Bitnomial, a regulated derivatives trading venue acquired by Payward for $550 million. Such a move would allow Hyperliquid to bypass the need to purchase a licensed American exchange, significantly speeding up the process and reducing costs.
What U.S. traders will actually get
It is important to soberly assess the situation: despite the loud headlines, American users will only get a portion of Hyperliquid's functionality. This concerns exclusively trading certain perpetual contracts through Bitnomial. Hyperliquid's own application will remain unavailable to them, as will the entire range of offshore instruments, including exotic markets and the leverage that international traders are accustomed to.
Trading will take place under strict CFTC rules, with mandatory identity verification (KYC) and a reduced set of contracts. For those already actively using Hyperliquid, nothing will change — this is merely a new, limited bridge for American investors, not a full-scale launch of the platform in the U.S.
Why rent rather than buy?
The choice to rent a license rather than acquire one looks strategically sound. Buying Bitnomial cost Kraken $550 million, which is a substantial sum. For comparison, Polymarket paid only $112 million for its licensed venue. This scheme will cost Hyperliquid significantly less, but the main point here is not savings. The key factor is control. In this model, both the licensed exchange and the clients remain under Payward's management, giving Kraken a powerful lever of influence over the development of Hyperliquid's business in the U.S.
Impact on the HYPE token
The news of the negotiations has already had a positive effect on the HYPE price. On August 27, the token updated its all-time high at $86.71, and by August 31 it had risen to $83.57, gaining 7.1% over the week. Notably, the record was achieved without the participation of American traders, which speaks to the strength of global demand.
Hyperliquid continues to direct 99% of protocol and trading fees toward buying back HYPE. Since December 2024, tokens worth $1.3 billion have been removed from the market. The question is whether turnover through Bitnomial can approach these volumes. The key factor will be the terms of the partnership: a fixed license fee or a percentage of revenue from American trading. For HYPE, these are two completely different development scenarios.
Filing documents with the CFTC is only the first step, and it does not guarantee approval. Regulators may make adjustments to the deal's terms, which adds uncertainty.
My analysis: This deal is a pragmatic but cautious step for Hyperliquid. It opens access to a huge market, but in a truncated form. For the long-term growth of HYPE, it is important that the partnership with Payward is strategic in nature, rather than just a one-time license rental. Investors should closely monitor the details of the agreement, which will be the deciding factor in assessing the platform's future potential.