Hyperliquid Labs is in substantive talks with Payward — the parent company of the Kraken exchange — about entering the U.S. market. This is not about acquiring a licensed American platform, but rather a strategic partnership that would allow it to bypass bureaucratic barriers. The scheme looks elegant, but let's break down what traders and HYPE holders will actually get.
Bitnomial as a gateway: what will change for users
The key element of the deal will be Bitnomial — a derivatives and clearing platform owned by Payward that operates in strict compliance with U.S. regulations. Through this structure, users registered in the U.S. will gain access to trading a portion of the perpetual contracts built on Hyperliquid's foundation. Relevant documents have already been submitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
However, it's important to understand the scale: Americans will only get access to a limited set of instruments, not the entire offshore order book. The native Hyperliquid app will remain closed to them — this scheme does not open it up. Exotic markets, such as commodities or contracts on companies not yet listed on an exchange, will also be off-limits. The leverage available on the offshore platform will also not be available in full.
Why rent, not buy?
Payward closed the deal to acquire Bitnomial on May 1 for $550 million, obtaining three CFTC licenses at once. For comparison: Polymarket paid only $112 million for its licensed exchange. Renting infrastructure will cost Hyperliquid significantly less, but the main nuance is not about money — it's about control. Both the licensed exchange and the clients in this scheme are managed by Payward.
Impact on HYPE: hopes and reality
The absence of American traders has not yet hindered the token's growth. On August 27, HYPE updated its all-time high at $86.71, and this was without a single registered user from the U.S. The protocol directs 99% of trading fees toward buying back HYPE, and since December 2024, tokens worth $1.3 billion have already been removed from the market. Whether turnover through Bitnomial will reach similar scales is a big question.
The HYPE price rose to $83.57 on August 31, gaining 7.1% over the week amid news that regulators are preparing for the platform's entry into the U.S. market. However, filing documents with the CFTC is only the first step, and approval is by no means guaranteed.
In my assessment, the market has already partially priced in a positive scenario for the U.S. entry into HYPE's price. But the key variable will be the terms of the partnership: if Payward receives a fixed fee for the license, that's one scenario for holders, but if it gets a share of revenue from U.S. trading, that's a completely different one. So far, we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, and investors should remain cautious, not succumbing to the euphoria of loud headlines.