The first cryptocurrency ended August with a confident 24% gain, posting its best monthly performance since November of last year. This is an important signal, especially against the backdrop of overall market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty that persists in the global economy.
During the month, the asset recovered from local lows around $64,000 and managed to test the level above $81,000. However, by the end of August, the momentum began to fade. After a speech by a U.S. Federal Reserve official, the market pulled back to $76,877, and at the time of writing this analysis, BTC is trading near $78,000. Pressure on risk assets is being exerted by the increased likelihood of a U.S. key rate hike—the market prices in a 64% chance of such a move at the upcoming meeting on September 16.
Trading volumes remain in the shadow of three-year lows
Despite the impressive price result, activity in the spot market leaves much to be desired. Monitoring data from the largest centralized exchanges shows that bitcoin trading volumes are near the lows of September 2023. For example, on Binance, the figure for August amounted to about $44 billion, whereas in October of last year it reached $198 billion. A similar picture is observed on other platforms: Gate showed a decline from $53.4 billion to $14 billion, and Bybit—from $41.2 billion to $17.4 billion. On average, the decline across the three key exchanges was about 70%.
However, there is also an encouraging nuance: the pace of declining activity has slowed. Volumes on Binance even grew slightly compared to July, which may indicate the beginning of market stabilization.
The Korean factor: the return of the "kimchi premium"
South Korea deserves special attention. On the local exchange Upbit, bitcoin is trading about 1% higher than on global platforms. The positive "kimchi premium" has held for a week now—the longest streak since the beginning of May. Notably, for most of the summer the situation was the opposite: the discount on the Korean market reached 3.1%. However, it is too early to say that Korean traders will become a driver of recovery—the return of the premium is not accompanied by a significant increase in spot volumes.
Large players are accumulating coins
August's rally was accompanied by a noticeable redistribution of coins in favor of large holders. Wallets with balances exceeding 100 BTC increased their holdings by roughly 60,000 BTC over the month. Meanwhile, addresses with balances from 1 to 100 BTC reduced positions by 33,000 BTC, and small holders (less than 1 BTC)—by another 14,000 BTC. Purchases by large participants accelerated after the breakout of the $62,000–$65,000 range, and there are no signs of mass profit-taking on their part so far.
Mixed signals from institutions
Institutional demand remains resilient: inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue, and most positions in these instruments are profitable. However, analysts also note alarming signs: cooling in the retail sector, a decline in the number of active addresses, and growing speculative sentiment in the derivatives market. The spread between expected and realized volatility is narrowing, indicating the transitional nature of the current phase.
My comment: The current picture resembles a classic dilemma: institutional capital supports the market, but the lack of retail participation and low volumes call into question the sustainability of this rally. Until we see a significant expansion in trading activity, any growth will be vulnerable to corrections. Watch the $80,000 level as a key marker of bullish strength.