August became a turning point month for the prediction market industry. The total trading volume on leading platforms — Kalshi, Polymarket, and its U.S. segment Polymarket US — dropped by 14.5%, falling to $45.33 billion. This is the first monthly decline in the metric since August 2025, signaling the end of the extreme growth phase.
Structure of the decline: who lost more
Kalshi still dominates the sector, recording a turnover of $37.17 billion. Polymarket and its regulated U.S. version accounted for only $8.16 billion. Notably, the overall downturn followed an abnormally hot summer period, when activity was fueled by the FIFA World Cup. It is clear that sporting events created a temporary surge in liquidity, which has now naturally subsided.
However, this should not be interpreted as a crisis of confidence. Rather, we are witnessing normalization after peak values. Prediction markets are becoming a mature tool, and the volume correction is a healthy reaction to overheated speculative interest.
My assessment: The 14.5% decline is not a reason for panic, but a marker of the transition from a hype phase to sustainable use. The key indicator to watch is not the overall figures, but user retention dynamics after the departure of major sports catalysts. If platforms retain at least 70% of the summer audience, the fundamental trend toward the institutionalization of prediction markets will persist.