After a ten-week pause, Strategy has once again become active in the market, acquiring 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million. The average purchase price was $80,318. This coincided with a recovery in MSTR quotes from summer lows: on August 28, shares closed at $127.31, and by August 31 they had risen to $132.94. The mNAV indicator—the multiplier to the net value of bitcoin assets—rebounded to 1.05–1.06x, which is critically important: previously, the shares were trading with almost no premium to the underlying asset.
Balance Sheet and Structure: What Has Changed
The company's holdings now amount to 845,050 BTC with an average entry price of $75,412. Total costs stand at $63.73 billion. Dollar reserves total $6.71 billion, including a $5.1 billion reserve fund and $1.61 billion in cash. At the same time, net leverage remains at zero. The senior debt stack—convertible notes and four lines of preferred shares—is valued at $20.8 billion at par, covering 31% of the bitcoin portfolio's value. The annual burden from dividends and interest is approximately $1.76 billion, and the reserve can cover it for 35 months, significantly exceeding the minimum threshold of 12 months.
STRC preferred shares are trading near $97.10 against a par value of $100. Of the $1 billion buyback program, $152 million has already been used.
New Rules of the Game: Saylor's Three Levers
The key change is the framework adopted by the company. Issuing shares through the ATM is permitted only when mNAV is above 1.00x. Below this level, the priority becomes buying back its own securities—first STRC, then MSTR—which is more advantageous than direct bitcoin purchases. The $5.1 billion reserve is limited to spending on dividends and interest, and the $5 billion BTC monetization program allows selling part of the holdings to replenish the reserve without diluting shareholder equity.
Michael Saylor now has three independent tools, and the choice of a specific one depends on the positioning of MSTR and STRC relative to their par values.
Key Signals to Watch
The main trigger is STRC moving above $100. This would open a second funding channel without dilution, and the share of proceeds from placements directed into bitcoin could rise from the current 61% to 90% or more. The second signal is a sustained hold of mNAV above 1.00x for a week, rather than a one-off intraday spike.
From the calendar, it is worth noting Monday's 8-K disclosures with weekly purchase data, the November 4 earnings report, and the pace of spending the monetization limit. Saylor's social media posts traditionally precede such disclosures but do not serve as a reliable signal—the same pattern was used during bitcoin sales as well.
A reverse signal is the compression of reserve coverage toward the 12-month minimum, which would indicate a return to sales.
Analysis of Price Dynamics and Strategy
It is telling that from August 23 to 30, BTC traded in the range of $77,081–81,360. The low occurred on Sunday, and the high on Tuesday amid a short squeeze. Strategy's average purchase price was $80,318—the upper quartile of the range. Even within a single week, the company preferred to buy at the upper boundary rather than at local lows. This repeats the reflex of the 2024–2025 phase, when purchases pushed the price up rather than catching the bottom.
There is a possibility that funding could come not only through the ATM or direct BTC sales. Given that the company already calls bitcoin capital, the logical next step could be selling options on part of the bitcoin reserve to major market makers. Such deals could create additional hedging flow in the spot and futures markets, but its direction will depend on the option's structure.
For now, Strategy remains a stabilizing factor rather than a growth driver: weekly flows of $300–800 million are noticeable but incomparable to the volumes of 2024–2025. The company will once again become a market engine only under one of two conditions: mNAV moves above 1.15–1.20x, lifting the restriction on the ATM size, or STRC rises above par, opening a second funding channel.
My analysis: Purchases at local highs should be viewed as the first sign that Saylor is feeling out the bottom of his own crisis, rather than as a confirmed reversal. Until a sustained breakout of key levels, this is more of a tactical maneuver than a strategic shift in course.