While the market was correcting, I identified several important events that could shape sentiment over the coming weeks. The key point is the upcoming wave of token unlocks, which will add volatility and pressure on prices.
Movement of leaders: BTC and ETH under pressure
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $77,443 by 09:30 Moscow time, losing 1.86% over the day. The daily range was $76,400–$79,200, indicating continued high sensitivity to macroeconomic news. Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.50% to $2,415, moving within the corridor of $2,380–$2,475.
Selling dominated among the top 25 by market capitalization. The biggest declines were shown by Canton (CC) — down 7.18%, Solana (SOL) — down 4.03%, and XRP — down 3.27%. Only a few held in the "green zone": Uniswap (UNI) rose 6.44%, while Litecoin (LTC) added a modest 0.45%.
Among the top 100 assets, Filecoin (FIL) delivered the best result, gaining 13.16%. Also standing out were Kite (KITE) and Pyth Network (PYTH) with gains of 13.09% and 10.62%, respectively. The day's laggard was Dash (DASH), which plunged 10.92%.
ETFs and liquidations: institutional outflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke their streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $236.46 million. At the same time, investors continued to build positions in altcoin products: XRP funds attracted $14.38 million, Ethereum — $10.95 million, Solana — $10.19 million, and Hyperliquid — $1.76 million. This points to growing appetite for diversification beyond the flagship coin.
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 63 points, remaining in the "greed" zone. However, the indicator's dynamics — from 69 points over the day — signal a cooling of euphoria. Over the past 24 hours, positions of 87,296 traders were liquidated for a total of $339.17 million. The main blow fell on longs: $272.95 million versus $66.22 million in shorts. The largest liquidation order was recorded on Binance for the ETHUSDT pair — $11.99 million.
Unlocks and centralization: risks and discoveries
Over the next month, token unlocks worth more than $1.535 billion are expected. One-time unlocks exceeding $10 million will affect HYPE, XPL, ENA, ZRO, H, CARDS, and ARB. Gradual unlocks of more than $10 million per month are expected for RAIN, SOL, CC, TRUMP, ZEC, ASTER, WLD, MORPHO, PUMP, TAO, AVAX, and NEAR. Such events will increase supply and put pressure on quotes, which should be considered when entering positions.
A joint study by ARK Invest and Glassnode revealed a worrying trend: only three participants reach the critical threshold of influence over block production in Bitcoin and Ethereum, whereas in Solana, 19 are needed for this. The authors note that the structure of mining pools and delegation does not allow this metric to be directly equated with real control. Bitcoin's infrastructure remains the most geographically distributed, with about 63% of its nodes operating through Tor. Ethereum is more dependent on cloud providers — roughly 20% of nodes are hosted on AWS.
Hyperliquid Strategies: new capital for buying HYPE
Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: PURR) has expanded its ChEF equity financing program from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. The funds will go toward general corporate purposes, including a possible purchase of HYPE. After reaching $1 billion in sales, the issuance of shares at $12.02 per share will be limited to 42,641,847 securities, representing 19.99% of the current number of shares. Lifting the restriction is possible only with shareholder approval or at Nasdaq's request.
My view: Hyperliquid's decision to double its financing program is an aggressive bet on the growth of its own token. However, amid the upcoming market unlocks, buying HYPE through share issuance could create an illusion of support that will not withstand the broader bearish pressure. Investors should be cautious with leveraged growth.