While retail investors were resting, the digital asset market was bracing for a serious shake-up. My analysis of overnight events and morning data on September 2 revealed several factors that could determine trading dynamics for the coming weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate near the lower boundary of its range, trading around the $77,443 mark. Over the past day, the asset lost 1.86%, moving within a corridor of $76,400 – $79,200. Ethereum (ETH) shows similar weakness: a decline of 2.50% to $2,415, with an intraday range of $2,380 – $2,475.
Pressure on altcoins and ETF outflows
The altcoin market is painted in red. Among the top 25 by market capitalization, the largest losses were suffered by Canton (CC) — down 7.18%, Solana (SOL) — down 4.03%, and XRP — down 3.27%. Exceptions were Uniswap (UNI) with a gain of 6.44% and Litecoin (LTC), which added 0.45%. In the top 100, the leader in decline was Dash (DASH), which plunged 10.92%, while Filecoin (FIL) unexpectedly rose 13.16%.
Institutional demand is also showing signs of cooling. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $236.46 million, breaking a streak of inflows. At the same time, products on XRP, Ethereum, and Solana attracted $14.38 million, $10.95 million, and $10.19 million, respectively. This points to a redistribution of interest within the market rather than an overall exit.
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 63 points, remaining in the "greed" zone. For comparison: a month ago, the indicator stood at 28 points, indicating a dramatic shift in sentiment. Over the past day, $339.17 million in positions were liquidated, with $272.95 million attributed to long positions — the market was punishing overly optimistic traders.
Upcoming unlocks and hidden centralization
The key event of the coming month will be the unlocking of tokens totaling more than $1.535 trillion. One-time unlocks exceeding $10 million are expected for HYPE, XPL, ENA, ZRO, H, CARDS, and ARB. This will create significant pressure on these assets, increasing supply.
Worthy of special attention is the joint research by ARK Invest and Glassnode, which I carefully reviewed. It turned out that just three participants reach the critical threshold of control over block production in Bitcoin and Ethereum. For comparison, in Solana, 19 are required for this. Although the authors rightly note that the structure of pools and delegation does not allow this metric to be directly equated with real control, infrastructure risks are obvious. About 63% of Bitcoin nodes operate through Tor, and 20% of Ethereum nodes are hosted on AWS, creating points of concentration.
Hyperliquid builds financial strength
Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: PURR) expanded its ChEF debt financing program from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. The proceeds will go toward general corporate purposes, including the possible purchase of HYPE tokens. Notably, after reaching $1 billion in sales, the issuance of shares below $12.02 per share is limited to 42,641,847 shares, which is 19.99% of the current number of shares. This decision gives the company significant flexibility to build positions in its own tokens.
My view: The market is in a phase of heightened volatility, where correction is combined with targeted spikes. Mass unlocks will create serious resistance for a number of projects, but growing interest in altcoin ETFs could offset this pressure. Attentive investors should watch the $76,400 level for Bitcoin — a break below it could open the door to a deeper correction.