The financial market is holding its breath ahead of the Bank of Russia's September meeting, and judging by the latest signals from the State Duma, the suspense remains. Contrary to the expectations of part of the market, the regulator may not opt to ease monetary policy, leaving the key rate unchanged. Such a scenario now looks quite realistic, and investors and businesses should be prepared for it.
The rate may be left untouched in September
Ahead of the Eastern Economic Forum, an important statement was made: a pause in the rate-cutting cycle cannot be ruled out at the upcoming meeting. This does not mean a reversal of the trend — the long-term trajectory toward cheaper lending remains intact, but the current macroeconomic picture is forcing the regulator to act cautiously.
A rate cut to 13% or lower by the end of the year remains possible, but this is not the baseline scenario. For the Central Bank to take such a step, a number of conditions must be met: stabilization in the fuel market, curbing the secondary effects of rising gasoline prices, ruble weakness, and the upcoming indexation of utility tariffs. For now, these pro-inflationary factors have not become entrenched in elevated expectations, but neither have they fully disappeared.
Here it is important to understand the regulator's logic: a rapid rate cut amid high inflation does not automatically lead to lower lending rates. Money only becomes cheaper when the market does not expect price shocks. Otherwise, we risk merely stoking demand without adequate supply, which would result in a new round of price growth.
Inflation will return to target in 2027
The current elevated price growth, in my assessment, is temporary in nature and linked to one-off factors. By 2027, inflation should return to the target of 4%. To achieve this, it is critically important to stabilize the petroleum products market, where the government has already taken a number of steps, and to avoid overcooling the economy through tight monetary policy.
The Bank of Russia is walking a fine line: on the one hand, it must dampen inflationary expectations; on the other, it must not stifle economic growth. Given limited production capacity, stimulating demand through a sharp rate cut would not produce the desired effect but would only accelerate price growth across a wide range of goods. Therefore, the regulator's current caution is not weakness but a deliberate strategy.
Banks are preparing for the digital ruble
In parallel with monetary issues, the financial sector is actively preparing for the introduction of the digital ruble. Large banks are fully technically ready for the launch, and even for smaller credit institutions, the problem of costly implementation has been somewhat alleviated. The Central Bank, together with the market, is seeking ready-made technical solutions that would allow any bank to connect to the platform without significant expenses.
The mass adoption of the digital currency is unlikely to radically reduce cash turnover — those who find it convenient will continue to use banknotes. However, the cost of settlements will indeed decrease: for citizens, all payments in digital rubles will be free, and for businesses, fees will be lower than bank charges. Smart contracts will also emerge on this platform, giving companies the ability to automate complex transactions and reduce costs.
The financial sector has withstood EU sanctions
The resilience of the Russian banking sector is determined not by the number of organizations on sanctions lists, but by real financial indicators. The sector ended the first half of the year with record profits, although the market has polarized: major players have strengthened, while smaller banks find it harder to secure funding channels.
The key proof of viability is the systemic reduction of dependence on European financial infrastructure. The share of ruble settlements in foreign trade operations reached a record ~60% in the second quarter of 2026, while the share of currencies from unfriendly countries fell to a minimum of 11.6%. Banks are establishing direct correspondent accounts with foreign partners, developing alternative payment corridors with friendly countries, and embracing digital finance.
Sanctions pressure is growing in quantitative terms, but qualitatively it no longer has a noticeable destructive impact. The financial sector has proven its adaptability, and this, in my view, is the most important signal for the market: even under external pressure, the system continues to evolve rather than merely survive.
My comment: A pause in September is not a reversal but a tactical breather. The market should price in a more gradual trajectory of rate cuts than previously expected. For borrowers, this means that the peak in deposit yields may be prolonged, opening a window to lock in high rates on deposits for the long term.