The Russian primary market may see a surge in activity: up to three IPOs could take place in the country by the end of 2026. This forecast was voiced by Vitaly Sergeychuk, First Deputy President and Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, during the Eastern Economic Forum. According to him, this is a baseline scenario that could be revised upward under more favorable market conditions.
A key condition for an increase in the number of deals will be further reductions in the cost of capital and the restoration of fair market valuations of businesses. For now, issuers are taking a wait-and-see stance, noting the potential for listings but not rushing to go public.
Window of Opportunity: Five Companies in the Queue
Analyzing the current situation, I see that about five Russian companies are already at a high level of technical readiness for a public listing. These issuers are closely monitoring market signals and waiting for the right moment to strike a deal. The decision to enter the stock exchange will depend on three key factors: the state of the capital market, the level of investor demand, and the ability to list at a justified valuation.
It is worth noting that the forecast comes amid active efforts by exchanges and authorities to expand the pool of issuers. A revival of the primary market hinges on a set of conditions—from the cost of money to regulatory requirements.
Exchange and Business: Seeking a Compromise
The Moscow Exchange has already announced plans to attract video game developers to the market—more than 150 such studios operate in the country. For them, the platform is ready to create a separate council within the "Innovation and Investment Market" sector. This is a logical step: the gaming business is characterized by high margins, and global practice shows successful examples of exchange-based financing for studios on the Warsaw, Stockholm, and U.S. platforms.
In parallel, businesses are pushing for softer rules for going public. "Business Russia" has appealed to the Bank of Russia to remove the requirement for a mandatory signature of the prospectus by a financial advisor, introduced in early August. As Alexey Lazutin, chairman of the association's subcommittee on public capital markets, explained, the new rule will hit small- and mid-cap companies the hardest—organizers of placements willing to take on the responsibility of a co-signer are practically nonexistent for such issuers.
My view: The announced forecast looks realistic but conservative. If the Central Bank maintains a tight monetary policy, we may see only 1-2 listings. However, if the regulator moves to ease requirements and lower the key rate, the market could surprise—pent-up demand from both issuers and investors has accumulated significantly. The key indicator will be the trajectory of rates and the willingness of businesses to disclose financial information under the new conditions.