The market is frozen in anticipation of the Bank of Russia's September meeting, and judging by the latest signals, there should be no illusions about a swift and steady easing of monetary policy. On the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, an opinion was voiced that the regulator may take a pause and not cut the key rate at the upcoming meeting. This is not just a rumor, but a fairly rational scenario that fits into the current macroeconomic logic.
The rate may be left untouched in September
A rate cut to 13% and below by the end of the year remains theoretically possible, but it can no longer be considered a baseline scenario. Such a step would require stabilization of the fuel market, and that secondary effects from rising gasoline prices, ruble weakening, and future utility tariff indexation do not become entrenched in elevated inflation expectations.
Moreover, no one has canceled the long-term trend toward lowering the rate and making loans cheaper for enterprises. However, rapidly cheapening money amid high inflation is a dead-end path. The market must stop expecting price shocks, and only then will a rate cut be effective. Otherwise, we risk merely accelerating prices without any stimulating effect for the economy.
Inflation will return to target only in 2027
The current price surge is largely temporary in nature, but this is no reason for complacency. Inflation is expected to return to the 4% target level no earlier than 2027. This will require stabilization of the petroleum products market and a balanced stance from the regulator, which is forced to balance between fighting prices and the risk of overcooling the economy.
Tight monetary policy here is not a whim but a necessity. With limited capacity to expand output, stimulating demand through cheap credit would only accelerate inflation across a wide range of goods. The regulator, apparently, understands this well and maintains a reasonable balance.
Banks prepare for the digital ruble
In parallel with monetary issues, active preparation for the introduction of the digital ruble is underway. Large banks are already fully ready for launch, although for smaller credit institutions, the problem of the high cost of technical implementation remains relevant. The regulator, together with the market, is seeking ways to create ready-made solutions that will reduce the cost of connecting to the platform.
Mass adoption of the digital currency is unlikely to drastically reduce cash turnover—those who find it convenient will continue to use banknotes. However, the cost of settlements will indeed decrease: payments in digital rubles will be free for citizens, and commissions for businesses will be lower than bank fees. Additionally, a platform for smart contracts is planned to be created on the basis of the digital ruble, which will automate complex transactions and reduce costs.
The financial sector has withstood EU sanctions
The resilience of the Russian banking sector is determined not by the number of organizations on sanctions lists, but by real financial indicators. The sector ended the first half of the year with record profits, although the market has polarized: major players have strengthened, while smaller organizations find it harder to secure funding channels.
The key proof of viability has been the reduced dependence on European financial infrastructure. The share of ruble settlements in foreign trade operations in the second quarter of 2026 reached record levels, approaching 60%, while the share of currencies from unfriendly countries fell to a minimum of 11.6%. Banks are establishing direct correspondent accounts with foreign partners, and alternative payment corridors are developing.
My view: Sanctions pressure is growing quantitatively, but qualitatively it no longer has the same destructive impact. The financial sector has proven its adaptability. However, for the crypto industry and digital assets, this means only one thing: interest in alternative payment systems and decentralized financial instruments will only intensify, as the traditional financial system continues to seek a balance between stability and innovation.