The Russian primary placement market is on the verge of a noticeable revival. According to my assessment, based on fresh data from the Eastern Economic Forum, at least three IPOs could take place in the country by the end of 2026. This is not just an optimistic forecast, but a balanced scenario that directly depends on the macroeconomic environment and the readiness of issuers to go public.
A key signal came from the top official—the head of one of the country's largest banks. He suggests that the number of deals could be even higher if the cost of capital continues to decline and market valuations of companies recover to attractive levels. For now, we are seeing a classic "window of opportunity" that opens only when several factors align: availability of money, investor interest, and an adequate price range for placement.
Five companies in waiting: who is ready to go public?
Particularly noteworthy is the fact that about five issuers are already at a high degree of technical readiness for a public listing. These companies are not just considering a placement but are waiting for a favorable moment for the deal. In essence, we are observing pent-up demand from businesses that was postponed due to instability. Once regulatory and market conditions stabilize, this "tangle" could unravel into a series of quick and successful IPOs.
The exchange and business: seeking a compromise
In parallel, active work is underway to expand the pool of issuers. The Moscow Exchange, for example, has announced plans to attract video game developers—more than 150 such studios operate in the country, and it is ready to create a separate council for them in the innovation sector. This is a logical step: the gaming business is characterized by high margins and successfully uses exchange financing on global platforms, from Warsaw to the United States.
However, the business community points to excessive barriers. In particular, the requirement for mandatory subscription of the prospectus by a financial advisor, introduced in early August, is being discussed. Based on my data, for small- and mid-cap companies, finding an organizer willing to take on such responsibility is practically impossible. This creates an imbalance: the exchange is seeking issuers, but the rules are scaring off exactly those who could form the basis of a new wave of placements.
My view: The market is at a bifurcation point. If the regulator eases requirements and the cost of capital moves downward, we will see not three but all five potential IPOs. But if bureaucratic hurdles persist, even ready issuers will prefer to wait. Investors should closely monitor signals from the Central Bank—they will be the trigger for activating the entire primary market.