The Russian primary placement market may pick up: the country could see up to three IPOs by the end of 2026. This forecast was voiced by VTB's First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board, Vitaly Sergeichuk, on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. According to him, under more favorable conditions, the number of deals could be even higher.
Growth potential amid rate cuts
The key driver for issuers to become more active will be further cheapening of capital and the restoration of fair market valuations. For now, about five companies are in a high degree of technical readiness to go public and are waiting for the right moment for a deal. The banker emphasized that the decision to list depends on the state of the capital market, the level of investor demand, and the ability to execute a deal at a justified valuation.
VTB's forecast comes amid active efforts by exchanges and authorities to expand the pool of issuers. In August, the Moscow Exchange announced plans to attract Russian video game developers to the market—more than 150 such studios operate in the country. The exchange is even ready to create a separate council for them within the "Innovation and Investment Market" sector, noting the high profitability of the gaming business and the successful global experience of exchange-based financing in Warsaw, Stockholm, and the United States.
Business against new regulator requirements
Meanwhile, the entrepreneurial community is seeking to soften the rules for going public. "Delovaya Rossiya" has appealed to the Bank of Russia to exclude the requirement for a mandatory signature of the prospectus by a financial advisor, introduced in early August. According to Alexey Lazutin, chairman of the subcommittee on public capital markets, the new rule will hit small and mid-cap companies the hardest—for them, placement organizers willing to take on the responsibility of a co-signatory practically do not exist.
Analyst comment: The revival of IPOs is a positive signal for the market, but it directly depends on the trajectory of the key rate. Until the regulator begins a cycle of monetary policy easing, it is premature to talk about a mass wave of issuers. A more realistic scenario is targeted placements in late 2025—early 2026.