The Russian stock market is on the verge of a new wave of activity. According to my estimates, based on an analysis of the current market conditions and statements from key players, up to three initial public offerings (IPOs) could take place in the country by the end of 2026. This will happen provided that the favorable market environment, which is just beginning to take shape, is maintained.
A key signal was given by one of the country's largest banks, which suggested that the number of deals could be even higher under more comfortable conditions. The potential for new listings is directly linked to two factors: a further reduction in the cost of capital and the recovery of fair market valuations of businesses. So far, we are only seeing the first signs of this process, but they are already enough to talk about specific timelines.
Five companies waiting for their moment
According to my data, about five issuers are already at a high degree of technical readiness to go public. These companies are closely monitoring the market and waiting for the right moment to strike a deal. Their decision will depend on the state of the capital market, the level of investor demand, and the ability to list at a fair valuation, without the discount that often accompanies hasty exits.
Interestingly, this forecast comes amid active efforts by exchange platforms and authorities to expand the pool of issuers. The revival of the primary market hinges on a whole set of conditions, from the cost of money to the rules for admitting companies to trading. It is telling that the Moscow Exchange has already announced plans to attract video game developers, seeing them as a high-margin and promising sector. Global practice, including platforms in Warsaw, Stockholm, and the United States, confirms the success of such an approach.
At the same time, businesses are lobbying for a relaxation of regulatory requirements. In particular, the abolition of the mandatory subscription of the prospectus by a financial advisor, introduced in early August, is being discussed. According to expert estimates, this innovation will disproportionately hit small and mid-cap companies, for which finding an organizer willing to take on such responsibility is practically impossible.
My view: The market is clearly moving toward a thaw, but the speed of this process will depend on the regulator's flexibility. If the Central Bank meets businesses halfway and eases excessive requirements, we could see not just three listings, but more. However, investors should remain cautious: in the pursuit of new names, it is easy to forget about the quality of issuers and their real ability to generate profits amid a high key rate.