The son of the U.S. president has turned the competition between two giants of the event betting market into his own personal financial insurance. Donald Trump Jr. has strengthened his positions in both leading platforms—Kalshi and Polymarket—and now his capital is protected against any outcome of their rivalry.
Investments in Both Camps
Trump Jr.'s venture fund, 1789 Capital, invested $300 million in a Polymarket funding round, after which the platform was valued at $21 billion. Meanwhile, he acquired a stake in Kalshi back in 2025, when the company was valued at a modest $300,000. Today, Kalshi's market capitalization has grown to $22 billion, making these investments among the most successful in the sector's history.
Trump Jr. himself has held a paid position as a strategic advisor at Kalshi since January 2025, and seven months later joined the advisory board of Polymarket. Thus, he simultaneously advises direct competitors who are fighting for the same users and the same regulatory rules.
Conflict of Interest or Strategy?
Such a dual role inevitably raises questions about ethics. At Kalshi, they claim that Trump Jr. is exclusively involved in marketing strategy and does not participate in discussions of regulatory issues. However, his influence extends far beyond corporate duties.
According to my information, he personally persuaded Republican attorneys general to stop pressuring betting platforms, arguing that the campaign against them was initiated by traditional gambling companies to protect their business. This took place at a closed meeting in New Orleans in March.
Regulatory War
The CFTC filed lawsuits against nine states this year, attempting to block their efforts to regulate betting markets at the local level. Eight of these states are led by Democratic attorneys general. The situation has become most acute in Arizona, where criminal charges were filed against Kalshi in March for illegal gambling services.
President Trump has also supported the industry, calling betting markets a new financial product and advocating for maintaining CFTC oversight. Thus, his son's interests in the leading platforms have become part of a broader dispute over the regulation of this rapidly growing sector.
My analysis: Such a ownership structure creates an unprecedented precedent where a key figure in the industry benefits regardless of who wins the competitive struggle. This raises the question of the need for more transparent rules for investors and advisors in the prediction markets sphere, since a conflict of interest of this scale could undermine trust in the very mechanism of market pricing for events.