Donald Trump Jr.'s strategy in prediction markets is a masterclass in risk hedging. His venture fund, 1789 Capital, invested $300 million in Polymarket's round, valuing the platform at $1 billion, after which its value soared to $21 billion. At the same time, he also holds a stake in a direct competitor—Kalshi, which over the same period rose in value from $300,000 to $22 billion. The U.S. president's son comes out ahead regardless of who wins this race.
An Advisor with a Foot in Both Camps
As early as January 2025, Trump Jr. took a paid position as a strategic advisor at Kalshi. Seven months later, he joined the advisory board of Polymarket—it was then that 1789 Capital made its first investments in the project. Now his interests are directly tied to two of the largest platforms for betting on events in the U.S., which compete for the same users and the same set of rules.
Such a dual role inevitably raises questions about ethics and conflicts of interest. Kalshi officially states that Trump Jr. is exclusively involved in marketing strategy and does not participate in regulatory matters. However, the very situation where one person advises two direct competitors looks unprecedented even for the crypto industry.
Political Leverage
The scale of Trump Jr.'s influence extends far beyond business consulting. He personally urged Republican attorneys general to stop pressuring prediction market platforms, arguing that the campaign against them was orchestrated by traditional gambling companies to protect their own business. This year, the CFTC filed lawsuits against nine states, attempting to block their efforts to regulate betting markets at the local level. The most acute situation has developed in Arizona, where criminal charges were brought against Kalshi for illegal gambling services.
Notably, the U.S. president himself has publicly supported the industry, calling betting markets a new financial product and urging that CFTC oversight be maintained over them. Thus, his son's interests in leading platforms have become an integral part of the dispute over regulating the entire market.
Expert perspective: This ownership structure is a rare case where an investor deliberately finances both sides of a conflict. However, for the market, this is rather a positive signal: having such a high-profile lobbyist could accelerate the formation of clear rules of the game, which in the long run will benefit the entire prediction market industry.