On the hourly chart of the first cryptocurrency, the formation of a pattern that traders call "Bart Simpson" is clearly visible. This graphical pattern, known since 2015, represents a sharp impulse up or down followed by a prolonged sideways movement in a narrow range and an equally rapid return to the initial levels. It got its name due to its visual resemblance to the hairstyle of the famous cartoon character.

For the complete completion of this bearish structure, bitcoin will need to quickly erase a significant portion of the August rally. Based on my estimates, derived from an analysis of market structure, a decline of approximately 20% from current levels is required for this. However, I am skeptical about the realization of such a scenario under current conditions.

Such volatility was characteristic of bitcoin in the early days of its existence, when the market was distinguished by low liquidity and immaturity. With the arrival of institutional players and the growth of trading volumes, such sharp movements are becoming increasingly less likely. The market structure has fundamentally changed, and this must be taken into account when interpreting graphical signals.

Key support and resistance levels

At the time of writing this analysis, bitcoin is trading around $77,700. Over the day, the asset lost 0.3%, and over the week, the decline amounted to 1.3%. After an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above $80,000, market attention is focused on liquidity concentration zones.

Analysis of on-chain data indicates the formation of significant support in the range of $62,000–65,000, where an active accumulation phase was observed during the summer. On the other hand, in the zone of $83,000–86,000, a substantial volume of supply from long-term holders is concentrated, which creates strong resistance.

Additional pressure is generated by the dynamics of profitable coins. At a similar price in May, about 65% of the supply was in profit, whereas at the end of August, this figure had risen to 68%. This increases the likelihood of profit-taking during any local rise.

However, not all indicators are painted in bearish tones. The bitcoin cyclical momentum index has entered positive territory for the first time in eight months. This may indicate the potential for a weakening of the downtrend, but to confirm a reversal, the indicator needs to rise into the range of 20–30 points over the coming weeks against the backdrop of a sustained recovery in quotes. For now, it only slightly exceeds the zero mark.

Institutional appetite is cooling

An ambiguous situation is also observed in the institutional segment. The peak seven-day average inflow into US spot bitcoin ETFs reached $290 million per day, but the trading volumes of the funds remained at around $3 billion per day — noticeably lower than the figures characteristic of sustained bull phases.

The options market also does not demonstrate pronounced expectations of continued growth. After the recent short squeeze, the 25-Delta Skew indicator has returned to neutral values. The expiration on September 25 accounts for approximately $14 billion in open interest on Deribit and IBIT options, with a significant portion of it concentrated at strikes above $80,000.

The US government debt market deserves special attention. The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds, after a pullback to 4.6%, has again risen to 4.8%, updating the highs of the current cycle. Strengthening yields traditionally exert pressure on risk assets, and bitcoin is no exception. After the speech by the Fed Chair at the end of August, the asset's price corrected from the local high of $81,455 to $76,877.

My conclusion: The formation of the "Bart Simpson" pattern, coupled with rising government bond yields and weakening institutional momentum, creates a risk of a correction to the zone of $70,000–72,000. However, fundamental improvements in the form of the cyclical indicator turning positive allow a deep decline to be viewed only as a stress scenario, rather than a base case.