On Bitcoin's price chart, the outline of a pattern is beginning to emerge that evokes mixed feelings in me. I am referring to the famous "Bart Simpson" pattern — a sharp vertical surge, followed by sideways sawtooth movement in a narrow range, and an equally swift return to the starting levels. This is not a classic indicator, but rather a recognizable graphical artifact that the crypto community has used to describe market whims since 2015.
Currently, for this pattern to fully form, the leading cryptocurrency would need to quickly erase a significant portion of the August rally. Based on my estimates and calculations by some colleagues, completing the pattern would require a drawdown of roughly 20% from current levels. However, like a number of other experts, I am skeptical about the realization of such a scenario. Such volatility was characteristic of the early stages of the market's development, when it was less liquid. Today, with the arrival of institutional capital, the amplitude of movements has smoothed out considerably.
Key Levels: Where the Bottom Is and Where the Ceiling Is
At the time of analysis, the asset is trading around $77,700, showing minimal intraday drawdown. After an unsuccessful attempt to hold above $80,000, market attention is focused on liquidity concentration zones. According to my data, a strong support level has formed in the $62,000–65,000 range — it was there that an active accumulation phase was observed during the summer. On the other hand, the $83,000–86,000 zone holds a significant volume of long-term investor supply, creating serious resistance.
An additional pressure factor is the rising share of profitable coins. During similar price dynamics in May, about 65% of the supply was in profit, whereas now that figure has risen to 68%, increasing the likelihood of profit-taking.
Bullish Signals Despite the Bearish Pattern
Nevertheless, the picture is not so clear-cut. Bitcoin's cyclical impulse indicator has entered positive territory for the first time in eight months. This is an important signal pointing to a potential weakening of the downtrend. True, for a full confirmation of a reversal, the indicator needs to rise into the 20–30 point range in the coming weeks, whereas now it only slightly exceeds the zero mark.
The institutional segment is also sending mixed signals. The average daily inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $290 million at its peak, but trading volumes remain at around $3 billion per day, which is below the levels of sustainable growth. The options market shows no pronounced expectations of a rally, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, having returned to 4.8%, is adding additional pressure on risk assets.
My conclusion: The formation of the "Bart Simpson" is more a reflection of market uncertainty than a verdict of an inevitable crash. The key trigger for movement will be the reaction to the $80,000+ levels. Until we see a clean breakout or a false breakout, it is premature to talk about a directional trend. The market is consolidating, and any news could become a catalyst for exiting this range.