On the chart of the first cryptocurrency, a configuration is forming that market participants identify as the bearish "Bart Simpson" pattern. This is not a classic technical indicator, but rather a recognizable graphical scenario known to traders since 2015. The essence of the pattern is a sharp impulse up or down, followed by a prolonged sideways movement in a narrow range, and an equally swift return to the original levels. The figure got its name from its visual resemblance to the hairstyle of the protagonist of a popular animated series.
For the current formation to fully complete, bitcoin will need to quickly erase a significant portion of the August rally. In my assessment, this would require a decline of about 20% from local highs. However, I am not inclined to view this scenario as the baseline. Such volatility was characteristic of bitcoin in the early stages of its existence, when the market was marked by low liquidity and immaturity. With the arrival of institutional capital and the growth of trading volumes, the amplitude of sharp movements has significantly decreased.
Key Levels: Where Will the Line of Defense Lie?
At the time of the analysis, the asset is trading around $77,700, showing a decline of 0.3% over the day and 1.3% over the week. After an unsuccessful attempt to hold above $80,000, the focus has shifted to liquidity concentration zones. On-chain data analysis points to the formation of significant support in the $62,000–$65,000 range, where an active accumulation phase was observed during the summer. On the other hand, the $83,000–$86,000 zone holds a substantial volume of long-term holder supply, creating strong resistance.
An additional seller overhang is being formed by the growing share of profitable coins in circulation. With similar price dynamics around $78,000 in May, approximately 65% of the supply was in profit, whereas by the end of August this figure had increased to 68%. This strengthens the potential for profit-taking.
Counterarguments: Bullish Momentum on the Horizon
Nevertheless, the picture is not unambiguously bearish. The Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has turned positive for the first time in eight months. This could signal a possible weakening of the downtrend. However, to confirm a reversal, the indicator needs to rise into the 20–30 range over the coming weeks amid a sustained recovery in prices. Currently, it only slightly exceeds the zero mark.
The institutional segment is also sending mixed signals. The peak seven-day average inflow into spot bitcoin ETFs reached $290 million per day, but the funds' trading turnover remained at around $3 billion per day. This is lower than the figures typical of more confident growth phases. The options market is not showing pronounced expectations of a rally: the 25-Delta Skew indicator has returned to neutral values after a recent short squeeze. Meanwhile, the September 25 expiry accounts for about $14 billion in open interest on options, with significant concentration at strikes above $80,000.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains a key pressure factor. The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds, having pulled back to 4.6%, has again risen to 4.8%, updating the highs of the current cycle. Rising yields traditionally have a negative impact on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Recall that after the recent speech by the Fed Chair, bitcoin corrected from its local high of $81,455 to $76,877.
My verdict: The market is in a phase of uncertainty. The "Bart Simpson" pattern is more of a description of the current consolidation than a verdict. The key signal will be the price reaction to the $77,000–$78,000 range. A breakdown below with confirmation would open the path to the $62,000–$65,000 zone, while a confident return above $80,000 amid positive macroeconomic triggers would negate the bearish scenario.