On the hourly chart of the first cryptocurrency, specialists are recording the formation of a pattern known in trading circles as "Bart Simpson." This is not a classic indicator, but rather a recognizable chart structure: a sharp impulse up or down, subsequent consolidation in a narrow range, and an equally rapid return to initial levels. The pattern gets its name from its visual resemblance to the animated character's hairstyle, and in relation to Bitcoin, it has been discussed since 2015.
For the current figure to fully complete, digital gold will require a quick correction that would erase a significant portion of August's upward movement. However, not all analysts believe in the realization of this scenario. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan estimates the necessary decline at roughly 20%, but he himself considers such a development unlikely. In his observations, such volatility was characteristic of the market's early stages, when it was less liquid and mature. With the arrival of institutional capital and growing trading volumes, such sharp movements are becoming increasingly rare.
Key Levels: Where Buyer and Seller Forces Are Concentrated
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $77,700, showing a decline of 0.3% over the day and 1.3% over the week. After August's surge above $80,000, the asset failed to hold at new highs, drawing market attention to liquidity pools.
According to on-chain analytics data, the nearest significant support has formed in the $62,000–65,000 range, where active coin accumulation took place during the summer months. On the other hand, the $83,000–86,000 zone holds a substantial supply from long-term holders, creating serious resistance.
An additional seller overhang is being formed by the rising share of profitable coins. In May, at a price of around $78,000, approximately 65% of the supply was in profit. In late August, at a comparable price, this figure increased to 68%, heightening the likelihood of profit-taking.
Counterarguments: Indicators Hint at a Reversal
However, not all signals are bearish. The Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has entered positive territory for the first time in eight months. CryptoQuant analysts interpret this as a sign of a possible weakening of the downtrend. Still, it is premature to talk about a full reversal: to confirm the signal, the indicator needs to rise into the 20–30 range in the coming weeks, whereas it currently only slightly exceeds the zero mark.
Institutional Demand and the Macroeconomic Backdrop
A mixed picture is also emerging in the institutional segment. The average seven-day inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $290 million per day. However, fund trading volumes remain at around $3 billion per day—noticeably below the levels recorded during periods of more sustained growth.
The options market also shows no pronounced expectations of further upside. After the recent short squeeze, the 25-Delta Skew metric has returned to neutral values. Meanwhile, the September 25 expiration carries roughly $14 billion in open interest on Deribit and IBIT options, with significant concentration at strikes above $80,000.
The U.S. Treasury market deserves special attention. The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds, after pulling back to 4.6%, has again risen to 4.8%, updating the highs of the current cycle. Rising yields traditionally put pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin is no exception.
My comment: The formation of "Bart Simpson" is more a reflection of market uncertainty than an unequivocal verdict of decline. The key trigger for direction will be the reaction to macroeconomic data and the dynamics of Treasury yields. As long as Bitcoin holds support above $76,000, it is premature to talk about a change in the medium-term trend, but for a confident bullish breakout, more substantial fundamental drivers are also needed.