The question of the future trajectory of the key rate remains a central theme for all financial markets, and the latest statements from the country's largest bank add intrigue. Sberbank CEO German Gref suggested that the Central Bank could take "tactical pauses" in the process of easing monetary policy. This statement, made on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, significantly adjusts market participants' expectations ahead of the regulator's next board of directors meeting, scheduled for September 11.
Caution as a new trend
My analysis of signals from leading players indicates that the market is entering a phase of heightened uncertainty. Gref emphasizes that the real interest rate remains quite high, giving the regulator room to maneuver. However, according to him, the Central Bank needs time to assess the full range of factors and their impact on inflation before continuing the downward movement. Sberbank does not expect a straight downward line, but also sees no prerequisites for a policy reversal.
This position echoes the recent actions and rhetoric of the Bank of Russia itself. Let me remind you that at the meeting on July 24, the rate was cut from 14.25% to 14%, but already at the end of August, the regulator stated that the space for further easing had narrowed. Moreover, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina did not even rule out a rate hike. Such rhetoric creates an extremely volatile backdrop for all asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, which are sensitive to global liquidity.
Divergence in forecasts and Central Bank scenarios
It is noteworthy that the forecasts of Sberbank and the regulator regarding the end-of-year endpoint differ significantly. The bank expects the rate to be at 13–13.5% by the end of the year, while the Central Bank in its projections for 2026 factors in a range of 14.5–14.6%. This gap in estimates underscores how differently market participants assess the speed of inflation returning to the target of 4%.
The Central Bank itself, in the draft of the Main Directions of Monetary Policy, presented four scenarios for developments up to 2029. The range is extremely wide: from the baseline scenario, which assumes a rate cut to 10.5–12.5% in 2027 with inflation at target, to a risky one, where the rate could jump to 19–21% and inflation accelerate to 11–13%. It is precisely this fork that explains why even within the establishment, including the head of the State Duma committee on financial markets, Anatoly Aksakov, they speak of a possible pause rather than a reversal of the trend toward cheaper money.
My expert view: For the crypto market, such uncertainty in the monetary policy of the largest economy is a signal for caution. A rate hike or even a prolonged pause in its reduction will support high yields on ruble instruments, diverting liquidity from risky assets. However, the Central Bank's baseline scenario, which implies a gradual rate cut, remains a positive factor for long-term growth in interest in alternative investments, including digital assets.