Sberbank CEO German Gref has suggested that the Bank of Russia may resort to "tactical pauses" in its key rate cutting cycle. This statement was made on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, where the prospects for monetary policy were discussed. At the same time, Sber maintains its forecast for the rate at the end of the year in the range of 13–13.5%, indicating an expectation of further, but more cautious, easing.
In my assessment, Gref's signal is highly telling: the market is beginning to realize that the disinflationary trend will not be linear. The regulator needs time to assess accumulated factors before moving further. Therefore, pauses are not a policy reversal, but a necessary element for calibrating decisions.
Room for Maneuver
Gref emphasized that the real interest rate remains quite high, giving the Central Bank room for a gradual reduction. However, he does not expect a straightforward downward movement. According to him, the Bank of Russia will weigh each step, responding to the changing economic environment.
This position aligns with the regulator's own recent actions and statements. At its meeting on July 24, the board of directors cut the rate from 14.25% to 14% per annum. Already in late August, the Central Bank stated that the room for further easing had narrowed, and Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina did not even rule out a rate hike. It is clear that the regulator's rhetoric has become more hawkish than market expectations.
Divergence in Forecasts
Interestingly, the forecasts from Sberbank and the Central Bank on specific figures diverge. The bank expects the rate to be at 13–13.5% by the end of the year, while the regulator itself projects 14.5–14.6% on average for 2026. This gap shows how differently market participants assess the speed of inflation returning to the 4% target.
Cautious assessments are also heard in the State Duma. Anatoly Aksakov, head of the financial market committee, did not rule out a pause at the September meeting, noting that the long-term trend toward cheaper money remains. In his view, a rate cut to 13% or lower by the end of the year is possible, but is not the baseline scenario. Such an outcome would require stabilization of the fuel market, and secondary effects from rising gasoline prices, ruble weakening, and indexation of utility tariffs must not become entrenched in elevated inflation expectations.
Central Bank Scenarios: From Soft Landing to Hard Storm
The regulator itself, in its draft of the Main Directions of Monetary Policy, presented four scenarios with forecasts for the rate, inflation, and GDP up to 2029—from baseline to risk-based. In the baseline scenario, the rate falls to 10.5–12.5% in 2027, and inflation settles at the 4% target. In the risk scenario, the picture is the opposite: the rate could rise to 19–21% in 2027, and inflation could accelerate to 11–13%.
Such a wide range explains why Sber speaks specifically of tactical pauses. The regulator needs to preserve room for maneuver under any course of events.
My conclusion: The market should prepare for the rate cut to be slower and more intermittent than many borrowers would like. For investors, this means that yields on fixed-coupon bonds may remain attractive longer, and volatility in the debt market will intensify ahead of each Central Bank meeting.