Russian President Vladimir Putin, during the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum, outlined key guidelines for macroeconomic policy. The main thesis is that the fight against inflation is proceeding successfully, but the regulator and the government will need to address this task without allowing excessive cooling of business activity. According to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development, as of August 31, annual inflation slowed to 6.3%, confirming the effectiveness of the current course.
Balancing on the Edge
Putin emphasized that the reduction in price pressure is the result of deliberate actions by the Central Bank and the Cabinet of Ministers. In recent months, the volume of investment has indeed declined, and this is a direct consequence of tight monetary policy. However, the authorities were initially aware of the risk of "overcooling" the economy and acted with this factor in mind, preventing the hyperinflationary scenario whose threat was quite real.
At the same time, the president acknowledged that there is no consensus among experts regarding further steps. Some insist on the need to launch a new growth cycle and give policy greater dynamism, while others call for caution. In his words, discussions with professionals could go on indefinitely, but the main goal is to create favorable conditions for private investment, which should become the driver of development instead of state resources.
Budget Deficit and the Debt Issue
Putin separately addressed the state of the federal budget. The deficit is acknowledged but described as non-critical against the backdrop of one of the lowest levels of public debt in the world. The president called not so much for total austerity as for rational spending of funds and a clear definition of priorities. He warned that excessive strain on the financial system, especially through borrowing from private banks, could lead to a reduction in available resources for businesses.
The head of state recalled that budget dynamics are always wave-like—periods of surplus alternate with deficits. The current situation is not unique, and the authorities are confident in the gradual resolution of all problems. In his assessment, the government and the Central Bank have so far managed to maintain a balance between stimulating growth and restraining prices, which should lead to the results announced a year and a half to two years ago.
Infrastructure Bonds as a New Tool
Another topic was attracting "long money" into public-private partnership projects. To this end, a financing model based on the issuance of concession bonds has been developed. Putin instructed to monitor the practical implementation of this scheme and fine-tune the mechanisms if necessary. The shortage of long-term capital remains one of the main barriers to infrastructure initiatives.
Let me remind you that last year at the EEF, VEB.RF and Sberbank already signed an agreement to create a new financing model for PPP projects targeting institutional investors. The two-stage scheme involves the issuance of a new type of securities, which should expand investment opportunities.
My view: Statements about inflation slowing to 6.3% are a positive signal, but the rhetoric about "balancing" points to the fragility of the current equilibrium. For the digital asset market and traditional investors, the key question remains: will the Central Bank be able to transition to policy easing without a new round of price pressure? For now, this is more of a scenario for the second half of 2025 than an immediate prospect.