The introduction of the digital ruble will become a serious challenge for the banking sector. My analysis shows that commission income of credit institutions could decline by more than 100 billion rubles annually. The reason is the mass transition of clients to the new form of the national currency, which will directly hit acquiring operations.
Key risks for banks
According to my calculations, such a scenario is realistic if the digital ruble reaches a share of 14% of the total volume of non-cash payments. The main burden will fall on commission revenues: the more payments move to the new system, the fewer card transactions remain, on which banks currently earn. Even taking into account partial compensation from the platform operator, losses will still exceed 100 billion rubles per year.
The risk of liquidity outflow deserves special attention. With the current limit on wallet top-ups for citizens at 300,000 rubles per month, the withdrawal of funds from bank accounts could reach 10% over five years. This will increase pressure on the cost of funding and margins. I estimate the scale of potential outflow based on Central Bank data: as of July 1, 2026, the volume of funds in citizens' accounts exceeds 67 trillion rubles, which is equivalent to an annual outflow of 1–1.5 trillion rubles. For small credit institutions, this will become a tangible burden.
Prospects and scenarios
Depending on the scenario, in five to seven years the digital ruble could account for 5% to 30% of non-cash turnover. However, in the next one to two years, the instrument will not gain significant popularity. This means that the path to profitability will be long, especially for small banks. Technical limitations, such as the unavailability of the wallet for iPhone owners due to Apple's refusal to support the applications, also restrain the pace of adoption.
Goznak, for example, does not expect a serious impact on cash circulation — the digital ruble will complement banknotes rather than replace them. VTB also sees no risks to liquidity at the start, but this is only a short-term view. The regulator, in turn, emphasizes the protection of funds: transactions with the digital ruble are covered by banking secrecy, and the funds themselves cannot be frozen, which increases the attractiveness of the instrument for citizens.
My expert opinion: banks should prepare for structural changes now. The outflow of liabilities and the decline in commission income are inevitable consequences of digitalization, and those who do not adapt their business model risk ending up among the outsiders.