The market expects from the Bank of Russia not a straightforward downward movement in the key rate, but a series of calibrated steps with pauses to assess the effect. This position was voiced by Sberbank CEO German Gref, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum. In his assessment, the regulator will need "tactical pauses" to analyze accumulated factors before each subsequent decision.
Sber does not expect a rapid cheapening of money this year. The bank maintains its forecast for the average key rate at 13–13.5% by year-end, while allowing for the possibility of temporary pauses in the easing cycle. Gref emphasized: the real interest rate remains quite high, meaning the Central Bank has room for maneuver, but there is no need to rush to use it.
Caution as a new trend
The statement by the head of Sberbank echoes the latest signals from the regulator itself. At its meeting on July 24, the board of directors cut the rate from 14.25% to 14% per annum, but already in late August the Central Bank spoke of narrowing room for further easing. Moreover, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina previously did not rule out even a rate hike in the event of pro-inflationary risks materializing.
It is noteworthy that Sber's and the Central Bank's forecasts on specific figures diverge. The regulator, in its latest materials, factors in an average rate of 14.5–14.6% for 2026, while Sber expects lower values. This gap clearly demonstrates how differently market participants assess the speed of inflation returning to the 4% target.
Scenarios until 2029: from a soft landing to a hard storm
The Bank of Russia itself, in its draft of the Main Directions of Monetary Policy, presented four scenarios for developments until 2029. In the baseline scenario, the rate drops to 10.5–12.5% in 2027, and inflation settles at the target. However, in the risk scenario, the picture is the opposite: the rate could jump to 19–21%, and inflation accelerate to 11–13%.
Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market Anatoly Aksakov also warned of a likely pause at the September meeting. In his assessment, a cut to 13% or lower by year-end is possible but is not the baseline scenario. Such an outcome requires stabilization of the fuel market and the absence of entrenched secondary effects from rising gasoline prices, ruble weakening, and utility tariff indexation in elevated inflation expectations.
My view: The market is gradually getting used to the idea that the easing cycle will be longer and more winding than previously assumed. A pause in September is not a policy reversal but rather a precaution. For the crypto market, which is sensitive to global liquidity, the Russian key rate remains a secondary factor, but the signal of maintaining tight monetary conditions in one of the world's largest economies adds nervousness to the overall risk picture.