The market expects the regulator to take more cautious steps in monetary policy. Sberbank CEO German Gref, on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, stated that the Bank of Russia may resort to "tactical pauses" in the process of lowering the key rate. According to him, the real interest rate remains quite high, which allows the regulator not to force events and to maintain pauses to assess current economic dynamics.
Sberbank maintains its forecast for the key rate at the end of the year in the range of 13–13.5% per annum. However, Gref emphasizes that a smooth downward movement does not mean a linear decline — the regulator needs time to analyze inflationary risks and the economy's reaction to previous decisions. This statement echoes the latest signals from the Central Bank itself: at the meeting on July 24, the rate was cut from 14.25% to 14%, and at the end of August, the Central Bank already stated that the space for further easing was narrowing.
Divergence in forecasts and scenarios up to 2029
It is telling that the forecasts of Sberbank and the regulator on specific figures differ. The Bank of Russia, in its baseline scenarios, projects a rate of 14.5–14.6% in 2026, while Sberbank expects a faster return to target inflation levels. This gap illustrates a fundamental divergence in assessing the speed of disinflationary processes.
The Central Bank itself has presented four scenarios for developments up to 2029 — from baseline to risk-based. In the baseline scenario, the rate could fall to 10.5–12.5% by 2027, and inflation would settle at the 4% target. In the risk-based scenario, however, the picture is the opposite: the rate could rise to 19–21%, and inflation accelerate to 11–13%. Such a wide corridor of possible trajectories explains why Sberbank speaks specifically of tactical pauses — it is critically important for the regulator to maintain room for maneuver amid high uncertainty.
Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, Anatoly Aksakov, also does not rule out a pause at the September meeting, noting that a rate cut to 13% or lower by the end of the year is possible but is not the baseline scenario. This would require stabilization of the fuel market and the absence of secondary inflationary effects from rising gasoline prices, ruble weakening, and indexation of housing and utility tariffs.
Analytical conclusion: The market is gradually getting used to the idea that the monetary policy easing cycle will be longer and more winding than previously expected. Investors and cryptocurrency market participants, who are sensitive to liquidity, should factor into their models the persistence of high rates at least until mid-2026. The Central Bank's tactical pauses are not a policy reversal but a deliberate strategy aimed at balancing support for economic growth and the fight against inflation.