Quantum computing has long ceased to be a purely academic discipline. Today, it is a battlefield where the interests of fundamental science, national security, and big capital intersect. Building a new type of computing machine is not just an engineering challenge but a strategic asset, control over which will determine the balance of power in the technological world for decades to come.
In this race, three key groups of participants can be distinguished. First, there are technology giants—IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon—which possess the resources for long-term investments. Second, specialized companies such as IonQ, Quantinuum, Rigetti, and PsiQuantum, for which quantum technology is the sole business. Finally, there are government laboratories and universities conducting fundamental research.
The scale of state involvement is impressive. This is no longer about grants but about industrial policy. The announced allocation of about $2 billion from the U.S. CHIPS Act among nine quantum companies is direct confirmation of this. Notably, IBM is expected to receive half of this amount—$1 billion—to build the first specialized quantum chip factory in the United States. At the same time, the corporation itself has committed to investing more than $10 billion in developing the field over the next five years.
The global scale of funding varies radically. China has directed approximately $17.5 billion through regional investment funds, the United Kingdom has added £2 billion to its national strategy, and Japan has allocated ¥1.05 trillion for research in quantum computing and chips. Even Canada is investing over $116 million in defense-related quantum technologies. Clearly, the stakes are extremely high.
A separate layer is cloud infrastructure. Amazon Braket and Microsoft Azure Quantum do not build their own processors but provide access to equipment from other companies. This is the first successful commercial model, sparing clients the need to purchase complex and expensive hardware such as cryostats.
What an investor needs to understand
The main danger for an investor is chasing flashy headlines about an "N-qubit processor." The number of physical qubits is an extremely weak metric if the system cannot effectively correct errors. One should look at operation fidelity (two-qubit gate fidelity), coherence time, and circuit depth. It is critically important to distinguish a laboratory prototype from a product available in the cloud and from a presentation with a roadmap for 2029.
The race for numbers is a game for marketers, not analysts. Real progress is measured not by the number of qubits but by the system's ability to perform useful computations faster and more accurately than classical supercomputers. It is these criteria, not flashy press releases, that will determine the winners in the long term.
My view: the current escalation of investments is a bet that quantum computing will become a new infrastructure technology, akin to the internet or semiconductors. However, years may pass before these machines begin to deliver real commercial returns. Investors should be highly selective and evaluate not only technological claims but also business models and real partnerships with industrial giants.