Sberbank CEO German Gref has suggested that the Bank of Russia may take "tactical pauses" in the process of lowering its key rate. The financial corporation maintains its forecast for the rate at the end of the year at 13–13.5%, indicating cautious optimism in market expectations.
This statement was made on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), where further guidelines for monetary policy were discussed. The regulator's next board of directors meeting is scheduled for September 11, and it will serve as a key indicator of the Central Bank's sentiment.
Caution as a New Trend
In my assessment, Gref's words reflect the real state of affairs: the real interest rate remains fairly high, giving the regulator room to maneuver, but not for hasty decisions. Sberbank does not expect a straightforward downward movement—rather, it is about a smooth trajectory with possible pauses.
The bank's head explains this caution by the Central Bank's need to weigh each step. The regulator requires time to assess a combination of factors—from inflation expectations to external shocks—before deciding on further easing. This is precisely why Sber allows for pauses in the downward movement of the rate.
This position aligns with the latest signals from the regulator itself. At its meeting on July 24, the board of directors cut the rate from 14.25% to 14% per annum, but already in late August, the Central Bank stated that the room for further easing had narrowed. Notably, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina has previously not ruled out even a rate hike—such a scenario remains on the table if inflation dynamics deteriorate.
Divergence in Forecasts and Central Bank Scenarios
Interestingly, the forecasts of Sberbank and the regulator on specific figures diverge. The bank expects the rate to be at 13–13.5% by the end of the year, while the Central Bank itself projects 14.5–14.6% in 2026. This gap clearly demonstrates how differently market participants assess the speed of inflation returning to the 4% target.
Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, also warned of a possible halt in rate cuts in September. He did not rule out a pause at the upcoming meeting, noting that the long-term trend toward cheaper money remains unchanged. In his assessment, a rate cut to 13% or below by the end of the year is possible but is not the baseline scenario—this would require stabilization of the fuel market and the absence of entrenched secondary effects from rising gasoline prices and ruble weakening.
The regulator itself, in the draft of the Main Directions of Monetary Policy, presented four scenarios for developments through 2029—from baseline to risk-based. In the baseline scenario, the rate drops to 10.5–12.5% in 2027, and inflation settles at the 4% target. In the risk scenario, the picture is the opposite: the rate could rise to 19–21% in 2027, and inflation accelerate to 11–13%.
Such a spread explains why Sber speaks specifically of tactical pauses—the regulator needs to preserve room for maneuver under any course of events.
My conclusion: the market is in a phase of adapting to a new reality where cheap money will not return quickly. Investors should factor rate volatility into their strategies and not count on a linear decline—pauses will become the norm, not the exception.