The introduction of the digital ruble will become a serious test for the banking sector, bringing significant financial losses. Based on my estimates, grounded in a comprehensive market analysis, credit institutions could lose more than 100 billion rubles in commission income annually. The main reason is the inevitable reduction in acquiring operations on bank cards, as more and more payments will shift to the new form of the national currency.
Structure of losses and new risks
The scenario in which the digital ruble captures a 14% share of the total volume of non-cash settlements looks quite realistic in the medium term. The key blow will fall precisely on commission revenues: the more actively citizens and businesses transition to settlements in digital currency, the fewer transactions remain passing through traditional acquiring infrastructure. Even accounting for partial compensation from the platform operator, the net effect for banks will be deeply negative.
The risk of liquidity outflow deserves special attention. With the current limit on wallet top-ups of 300,000 rubles per month from own accounts, the withdrawal of funds from the banking system could reach 10% over five years. Given that the volume of funds in individuals' accounts exceeds 67 trillion rubles, in monetary terms this amounts to a colossal 1–1.5 trillion rubles per year leaving banks. For small credit institutions, such an outflow will become a critical blow to funding and margins.
Adaptation horizon and technological constraints
The range of forecasts for digital ruble penetration is wide: from 5% to 30% of non-cash turnover over a five-to-seven-year horizon. However, a mass transition will not occur in the next one to two years, which gives banks time to adapt. It is telling that Goznak does not expect a significant impact on cash circulation—the matter concerns redistribution between forms of money, not the replacement of banknotes. This confirms that the main burden will fall on banks' resource base.
Technical barriers also play into the hands of credit institutions. Limited access to wallets for iPhone owners due to Apple's stance creates a natural brake on mass adoption. At VTB, however, they see no risks to liquidity at the outset, but this only confirms that the first months are not indicative, while the five-year horizon already carries real challenges.
My view: Banks should already be revising their business models and seeking new sources of income, rather than relying on acquiring fees. The protection of banking secrecy for digital ruble transactions, as stated by the Central Bank, will increase the instrument's appeal to citizens and accelerate the outflow of funds from deposits—this is only a matter of time, and ignoring this trend is dangerous.