De-escalation between the US and Iran: oil collapsed, bitcoin strengthened, gold loses ground
The geopolitical landscape has undergone a dramatic shift. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, acting as a mediator, announced that a principled agreement has been reached between Washington and Tehran. The parties have agreed to an immediate and complete cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including the Lebanese direction. The signing of the final agreement is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. The White House promptly confirmed this information, adding that after the signing, the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for global energy supplies — will be opened to all vessels.
Markets reacted instantly and in divergent directions, displaying a classic pattern of risk reassessment.
Oil and Gold: Decline Amid Peace
The most significant pullback was recorded in commodity markets. August Brent crude oil futures plunged by 4.61% to $83.3 per barrel, breaking below the $84 level for the first time since March. WTI futures lost 5.05%, falling to $80.59. The key catalyst was the expectation of the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil volume passes. Additional pressure came from Tehran: Iran's Ministry of Oil ordered an increase in production by 500,000 barrels per day within 48 hours, seeking to compensate for losses from the previous blockade.
Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, also came under pressure. The spot price of XAU/USD corrected to around $4,219 per ounce, retreating from the all-time highs above $4,500 recorded in late May at the peak of geopolitical tensions. The reduction in military risks and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar dampened interest in the non-yielding metal.
Bitcoin: Rising Risk Appetite
The cryptocurrency market perceived the news as a powerful signal for risk-on assets. Bitcoin is trading around $65,589, gaining approximately 1.9% over the past day. The reduction in geopolitical uncertainty traditionally supports assets that the market classifies as risky, and the leading cryptocurrency is no exception.
In the spring of 2026, during the height of the escalation, Bitcoin showed mixed dynamics: at the peak of fears, it fell below $70,000 amid investor outflows and mass sell-offs. Now, with de-escalation, part of that pressure is easing. However, in the medium term, the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on June 16-17 and the further trajectory of U.S. inflation are more important for BTC prices.
Cryptalist Analytical Conclusion: The short-term positive for Bitcoin is obvious, but it should not be forgotten that the deal is still preliminary. Technical negotiations this week and Tehran's close monitoring of Washington's fulfillment of its commitments maintain an element of uncertainty. The true test for the market will come after June 19, when the agreement is signed. Until then, volatility will remain high.