McGlone: Bitcoin and gold are heading toward a resolution — the market is on the verge of a historic choice
The macroeconomic picture I see today resembles a taut string. Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggests we are approaching a resolution. In his assessment, the overheated US stock market scores a 10 out of 10 as a driver of inflation or deflation, and this could be an "endgame signal."
McGlone links the current scenario to the political context: the cost of living has become one of the main election issues, with US midterm elections ahead, and inflation remains a key obstacle for the current administration. This is not just technical analysis — it is a fundamental shift.
What do the charts show?
According to McGlone, gold and Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026 appear to have "reverted to the mean," and this could mean that beta assets are next. On the annual chart of total US Treasury returns from Bloomberg, a bottom is likely being felt from lows around 1983 relative to the precious metal. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has lost about 50% from its 2025 peak near $126,000.
All that is missing is a moderate pullback to average levels in the S&P 500 to GDP ratio — this indicator is at its highest year-end level since 1928. For Bitcoin to recover and for gold not to weaken further against Treasury bonds, the US stock market, in McGlone's view, may need to continue rising, beyond historical extremes.
Gold-to-Bond Ratio at Historical Extreme
A similar picture is described by the analytical project Quant & Algorithmic. The gold-to-US Treasury bond ratio shows the second-largest historical deviation from its quadratic trend line. A higher value was recorded only once — in August 2011. At that time, the combination of the US debt crisis and a downgrade of the country's credit rating pushed gold to record levels.
The precious metal and bonds have moved to extreme positions relative to each other, and history shows that such deviations do not last long. McGlone's logic boils down to the fact that the resolution depends on the US stock market — as long as it rises above historical norms, Bitcoin has a chance to recover, and gold has less reason to fall against bonds.
My expert take: McGlone's scenario is a classic "waiting mode" for risky assets. If the stock market continues to ignore fundamental imbalances, Bitcoin could get a tailwind. But if inflation accelerates again, gold will become the only safe haven, and BTC risks being squeezed between two poles. Investors should prepare for high volatility in the coming quarters.