SpaceX as the New Rocket Lab: Analyst Warns of Record IPO Trap
The market is holding its breath after the most high-profile IPO in history — the listing of SpaceX (SPCX) shares. However, not all participants share the widespread optimism. Leading macroeconomic analyst under the pseudonym Wimar.X sees frightening parallels in the current frenzy with the story of Rocket Lab (RKLB) in 2021. In his view, what appears to be the dawn of a space era for investors may, in reality, turn out to be a classic liquidity trap.
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026, listing shares at $135. This gave the company a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. On the very first day of trading on Nasdaq, the stock closed above the listing price, further fueling interest among retail investors. But according to Wimar.X, this exact scenario has played out before.
Lesson from 2021: The Path of Rocket Lab
In 2021, Rocket Lab also went public amid bold headlines. At the time, everyone repeated the same refrain: "This is the future," "Space stocks will change everything." However, this was followed by a sobering collapse. According to the analyst's data, RKLB shares plummeted 82.8% from their 2021 all-time high to their 2022 low. Retail investors, in his words, "bought the dream" and then faced the harsh reality of a market correction.
Wimar.X draws a direct parallel: in 2026, we see the same space narrative. The company has just listed, surrounded by the biggest IPO frenzy in history, a trillion-dollar valuation, and everyone is again calling it the future. However, as the analyst claims, the SPCX valuation is already beginning to decline, which is not a bullish but a bearish signal.
Why SpaceX is a Riskier Bet
The key difference, according to the expert, lies in scale. SpaceX is much larger than Rocket Lab, the market around the company is "crowded," and the timing for entry is worse. The same space euphoria, the same retail investor chase, a similar story about the future — but with less favorable timing. Wimar.X emphasizes: the space hype may initially drive up prices, but then it will crash those who chased it.
To support his experience, the analyst notes that he has been studying macroeconomics for over a decade and has predicted almost all major market peaks, including Bitcoin's all-time high in October. He urges investors to exercise caution and prudence before making investment decisions.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: I tend to agree with this analysis. The history of financial markets is full of examples where the "most promising" IPOs became points of maximum optimism and subsequent disappointment. FOMO (fear of missing out) is the worst advisor when evaluating companies with multi-trillion-dollar capitalizations, especially in capital-intensive sectors where real profits are still far off. Investors should carefully weigh the risks before diving into the space race at current prices.