Gold and Bitcoin are reversing: McGlone predicts a market resolution
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes the current global macroeconomic situation is approaching a tipping point. In his assessment, the overheated US stock market is a key driver of both inflationary and deflationary risks, and this could become an "endgame signal" for the entire financial landscape.
McGlone links this scenario to the political context: affordability has become a major theme in the upcoming US midterm elections, and inflation remains a significant obstacle for the current administration. The market, in his view, is at a point where any movement could trigger a cascading reaction.
What McGlone's Charts Show
According to the strategist's analysis, gold and Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026 appear to have "reverted to the mean." This could mean the next step is a capital rotation into beta assets. Bloomberg's US Treasury Total Return Index annual chart shows a potential bottom forming at the 1983 lows relative to the precious metal. Bitcoin, in turn, has lost about 50% from its 2025 peak near the $126,000 level.
McGlone notes that the market only lacks a moderate reversion to the mean in the S&P 500 to GDP ratio — this indicator is at its highest year-end level since 1928. For Bitcoin to recover and for gold not to weaken further relative to Treasury bonds, the US stock market, in his view, may need to continue rising, beyond historical extremes.
Gold-to-Treasury Bond Ratio at Historical Extreme
The analytical project Quant & Algorithmic describes a similar picture. According to their data, the gold-to-US Treasury bond ratio shows the second-largest historical deviation from its quadratic trend line. A higher value was recorded only once — in August 2011. At that time, a combination of the US debt crisis and a credit rating downgrade pushed gold to record levels.
The precious metal and bonds have moved to extreme positions relative to each other, and history shows that such deviations do not last long. McGlone's logic boils down to the fact that the resolution depends on the US stock market: as long as it rises above historical norms, Bitcoin has a chance to recover, and gold has fewer reasons to fall against bonds.
Cryptalist Comment: The situation indeed resembles a classic "moment of truth." If the stock market continues to ignore macroeconomic signals and maintain extreme levels, we could see a sharp liquidity rotation into cryptocurrencies and commodity assets. However, the risk of a correction in the S&P 500 remains high, and then Bitcoin will likely follow it downward before finding a bottom. Investors should be prepared for increased volatility in the coming weeks.