Crypto news

The Four-Year Rhythm: From Accumulation to "Bears"

The dynamics of the first cryptocurrency follow a clear, almost mechanical rhythm. Analysts have long noticed that key turning points on the Bitcoin chart are tied to halvings — events that occur once every four years. This pattern has become not just an observation, but a fundamental psychological factor shaping trading strategies.

A typical cycle begins with the accumulation phase. After a crash from historical highs, volatility decreases, and market sentiment becomes neutral or outright negative. It is at this moment that "whales" and long-term holders, considering the asset undervalued, methodically build up their positions. On-chain data clearly records this process. Retail traders, frightened by prolonged corrections, typically remain inactive during this period.

After 12–15 months of accumulation, the market transitions into a bullish trend. Growth often begins even before the halving, as the market prices in the reduction in issuance in advance. The expectation of scarcity fuels demand, attracts liquidity, and draws media attention. The halving itself becomes a catalyst for parabolic growth, when smooth movements give way to sharp surges. By this point, retail investors also join in, actively using leverage, which triggers spikes in volatility.

The bull market lasts from 12 to 18 months. Its finale is a deep correction. Positions of margin traders are forcibly closed, altcoins fall harder than Bitcoin, and the market enters a bearish phase. Panic gives way to "sideways movements" and "dead cat bounces" until a bottom forms, after which the cycle begins anew.

Causes of Crashes: From Overheating to Macroeconomics

Short-term corrections are difficult to predict, but their causes are well known. Most often, a crash is triggered by market overheating due to excessive leverage. The slightest downward movement activates margin calls, triggering a cascade of liquidations. This is a typical scenario, as we saw, for example, on January 29, 2026, when weak tech company reports provoked a mass forced closure of positions.

However, the key factor remains global macroeconomics. When central banks tighten policy or liquidity exits the system, investors first reduce positions in risk assets. In 2022, when the Fed began aggressively raising rates, Bitcoin lost more than 60% of its value. External shocks — wars, trade tariffs, unexpected regulatory bans — can also crash the market. Just recall the crash in March 2020 amid the pandemic or the drop in May 2021 following news of a mining ban in China.

The Role of Halving: Programmed Scarcity

The concept of the four-year cycle relies on the halving — a mechanism embedded by Satoshi Nakamoto to limit supply. Every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), the mining reward is halved. This makes Bitcoin similar to gold: the lower the inflow of new supply, the higher the asset's scarcity. Historically, it is after halvings that Bitcoin has entered a strong bullish phase.

Evolution of Cycles: From Pizza for 10,000 BTC to ETFs

Each cycle had its unique characteristics. In 2013, the market was shaped by tech enthusiasts, and the main event was the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange, after which Bitcoin lost 85% of its value. In 2017, the ICO mania drove the price to $20,000, followed by an 84% crash due to regulatory pressure and panic selling.

The 2021 cycle coincided with the era of monetary stimulus. The growth of global liquidity pushed the market to $69,000. However, it ended with a chain of bankruptcies — from the collapse of UST to the fall of FTX. The bottom was found around $15,500.

The 2025 cycle turned out to be atypical. Bitcoin updated its all-time high near $73,000 even before the halving in April 2024. The main driver was institutional demand following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Retail participation, on the other hand, remained notably more modest.

Is Cyclicality Changing?

The growing presence of institutional players is changing the market structure. ETFs, corporate reserves, and hedge funds buy on a fixed schedule, rarely use leverage, and strictly control risks. This reduces volatility and the amplitude of cycles. At the same time, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly tied to macroeconomics — interest rates and Fed policy — which weakens the impact of the halving.

With each new halving, its effect becomes less pronounced. If the first halving reduced the reward from 50 to 25 BTC, the last one only from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Analysts increasingly talk about the end of the "era of Bitcoin cycles," but in my view, this is more of an evolution than a disappearance of patterns. The market is maturing, and its rhythms are synchronizing with the global economy.

Expert opinion: The current cycle is the first where institutional capital sets the tone, not retail. This means that previous "parabolic tops" and "crypto winters" may become a thing of the past. However, the basic psychology of the market — fear and greed — has not gone away. It simply manifests in a smoother form, making Bitcoin a more mature, but no less interesting, asset.