Bitcoin and Gold on the Brink of a Breakthrough: McGlone Records a Historic Reversal
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has presented a new, highly compelling analysis of the current macroeconomic situation. In his view, the global economy is on the verge of a resolution, with the overheated US stock market serving as the key indicator of this process. McGlone assesses this factor as a ten-point driver of both inflation and deflation, which is essentially an "endgame signal."
The analyst links the current scenario to the political context: the cost of living has become one of the main topics in the upcoming US midterm elections, and inflation remains a key obstacle for the current administration. In such an environment, the market is seeking new anchor points.
McGlone's Charts: Reversion to the Mean
McGlone notes that in 2026, gold and bitcoin (BTC) appear to have "reverted to the mean." This could mean that the next step will be a capital shift into beta assets. His analysis shows that the US Treasury bond total return index is likely bottoming out near levels relative to the precious metal not seen since the lows of 1983. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has lost about 50% from its 2025 peak near $126,000.
According to the strategist, the market only lacks a moderate reversion to the mean in the S&P 500 to GDP ratio. This indicator is at its highest year-end level since 1928. For bitcoin to recover and for gold not to weaken further relative to Treasury bonds, the US stock market may need to rise even higher, surpassing historical extremes.
Gold-to-Bond Ratio at Historical Extreme
The analytical project Quant & Algorithmic describes a similar picture. According to their data, the ratio of gold to US Treasury bonds shows the second-largest historical deviation from its quadratic trend line. A higher value was recorded only once—in August 2011. At that time, a combination of the US debt crisis and a credit rating downgrade pushed gold to record levels.
The precious metal and bonds have moved to extreme positions relative to each other, and history shows that such deviations do not last long. McGlone's logic boils down to the resolution depending on the US stock market: as long as it rises above historical norms, bitcoin has a chance to recover, and gold has fewer reasons to fall against bonds.
My professional opinion: We are witnessing a classic "coiled spring" scenario. The imbalance between traditional safe-haven assets (gold) and risk assets (bitcoin) has reached a critical point. If the stock market continues to ignore macroeconomic risks, we could see a sharp upward surge in BTC that rewrites the current picture. However, any external shock could trigger the opposite process—a flight into gold and cash.