Analysts at Bernstein: Robinhood will earn nearly $600 million in prediction markets — driven by the FIFA World Cup.
The explosive growth of activity in prediction markets during the FIFA World Cup is turning into a powerful financial catalyst for broker Robinhood. Based on my estimates, derived from data by Bernstein analysts, the company is on the verge of an impressive revenue surge.
The dynamics look more than convincing. While on regular days the daily trading volume on the platform hovered around $2.2 billion, on June 12, the day of the USA vs. Paraguay match, it soared to $4.8 billion. For comparison, last year's Super Bowl, traditionally considered a major event, attracted only $1.4 billion. This clearly demonstrates how much the football championship has exceeded expectations in terms of user engagement.
Revenue forecasts are impressive: Robinhood's revenue from the prediction markets segment is expected to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. A 286% increase is not just a number, but a signal of a paradigm shift. By 2026, this segment will account for about 17% of the company's total commission income and 10% of total revenue. This means prediction markets are ceasing to be a niche entertainment and are becoming a strategic business direction.
Key Driver — Partnership with Rothera
Robinhood's partnership with the exchange and clearing house Rothera, which holds a CFTC license, deserves special attention. Since its launch on May 28, the platform has processed about 200 million contracts. Nearly the entire volume came from World Cup and MLB contracts. This suggests that users are voting with their money for simple and understandable sports events, rather than complex financial derivatives.
Robinhood's competitive advantages are obvious: access to a massive proprietary user base and aggressive pricing policy. The company charges a commission of up to $0.01 per contract, with Gold subscribers receiving a discount of up to 50%. This makes the platform extremely attractive for the mass trader.
Competition is Growing, but Robinhood is Still Ahead
However, it's too early to relax. Competitors are not idle. Polymarket has already launched contracts on private company events, using data from Nasdaq Private Market. And Kalshi has brought CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies to the market. This creates pressure on Robinhood, but for now, the broker is winning due to scale and simplicity.
My expert conclusion: Prediction markets are experiencing a boom, and Robinhood has found itself at the epicenter of this storm. However, it is important to remember that such tools are not just entertainment. As the head of Bubblemaps rightly noted, they are becoming "tools of intelligence and information warfare." Investors should closely monitor the regulatory risks that will inevitably arise with such rapid growth.