The quantum threat to Ethereum has become a reality: Google has reduced the cracking threshold by 20 times, but protection is already on the way
The cryptocurrency world has received a serious wake-up call. Google's Quantum AI division published a study in March 2026 that fundamentally changes the perception of Ethereum's security. According to this data, cracking the electronic signature scheme protecting every network account now requires 20 times less computing power than previously assumed. The quantum threat is no longer hypothetical — we have concrete timelines and figures.
It was previously believed that compromising ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) would require tens of thousands of logical qubits. Google's new work reduces this estimate to approximately 1,200 qubits. The company considered this forecast realistic enough to set an internal deadline for migrating its own systems to post-quantum protection by 2029. This is not just theory — this is a roadmap.
How does it work and who is affected?
The problem is that when sending a transaction on Ethereum, an account reveals its public key. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive the private key from it and drain the wallet. Current quantum machines are not yet capable of this, but 1,200 qubits is already a very concrete target for engineers. Moreover, about 0.1% of funds on the Ethereum network reside at addresses with exposed public keys — such wallets are vulnerable even today.
It is not only token holders who are at risk. The quantum threat looms over validator signatures, data availability guarantees, and zero-knowledge proof systems that underpin most rollup protocols. All this infrastructure relies on mathematics that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break.
What is Ethereum doing?
The Ethereum Foundation is not sitting idle. In January 2026, a dedicated Post-Quantum Security team was assembled, led by Tom Coratger. Key researcher Justin Drake considers protection against the quantum threat one of the main strategic tasks. The Foundation announced the Poseidon Prize, a $1 million award for breakthrough solutions in hash-based cryptography, building on three NIST post-quantum cryptography standards approved in August 2024.
In the near term, EIP-8141 is being considered — a standard that implements account abstraction at the network level and gives each account the right to choose its own signature scheme. It is planned to be included in the Hegota hard fork, scheduled for the second half of 2026. Ethereum aims to complete its technical restructuring by approximately 2029 — the same milestone Google has set for its own systems. For those who want to protect themselves today, the Foundation's Kohaku project is suitable, allowing the creation of a quantum-resistant smart account based on ERC-4337 without requiring a hard fork.
The rest of the blockchain industry
No major blockchain has responded to the threat like Ethereum. Bitcoin, Solana, and others face the same vulnerabilities, but no project has assembled a dedicated post-quantum security team or presented a comparable action plan. The figure of 1,200 qubits is not yet a death sentence, but a 20-fold reduction in the risk estimate from one of the world's most advanced quantum programs is not a signal the rest of the market can continue to postpone.
Expert opinion: Ethereum demonstrates a proactivity rare in the crypto industry. While other market participants rely on hope, Vitalik Buterin's team is already laying the foundation for security in the next decade. Investors should closely monitor the development of EIP-8141 and the Hegota hard fork — these are not just technical updates, but critically important steps for the network's survival in the post-quantum era.