Market déjà vu: SpaceX's IPO mirrors Rocket Lab's scenario — analyst warns of a trap
The market froze in anticipation as SpaceX (ticker SPCX) made its historic IPO on June 12, 2026, pricing shares at $135 and valuing the company at $1.75 trillion. The first day of trading on Nasdaq ended with a confident rise above the offering price, sparking a wave of euphoria. However, beneath the surface of this triumph, an alarming signal is brewing, which experienced analysts are already comparing to events from four years ago.
The key conclusion I draw from analyzing market dynamics is that the current frenzy around SPCX eerily resembles the story of Rocket Lab (RKLB) in 2021. Back then, after going public, RKLB shares crashed 82.8% from their all-time high to the 2022 low. Retail investors, who succumbed to the space narrative and promises of the "future," ultimately faced the harsh reality of a correction.
Now we are seeing the same pattern: the space theme is back in the spotlight, a record trillion-dollar valuation, and everyone is talking about the "future." But in my assessment, this is not a bullish signal, but a bearish one. The market around SpaceX is "overheated," and the timing for entry is significantly worse than in the case of RKLB. Space euphoria may temporarily boost prices, but then a crash will inevitably follow for those who chased the "dream" without proper analysis.
In support of this thesis, it is worth noting that the macroeconomic backdrop in 2026 is significantly less favorable for high-risk assets than in 2021. The lesson taught by the Rocket Lab story remains relevant: behind loud headlines and space ambitions, a liquidity trap often lurks. Investors should exercise extreme caution and skepticism before pouring capital into one of the most expensive IPOs in history.
My professional opinion: The RKLB scenario is a classic example of how market hype outpaces fundamental metrics. SpaceX is undoubtedly a unique company, but its current valuation already prices in decades of flawless growth. Amid tightening monetary policy and instability in global markets, a repeat of the 2021 story is not just a possibility, but almost an inevitability. Retail investors should avoid chasing "space" stories at the peak of the frenzy.