SpaceX and the trap of a record-breaking IPO: lessons from history with Rocket Lab
The market is watching SpaceX's (SPCX) stock exchange debut with bated breath, but not everyone sees it as an unequivocally bullish signal. Experienced analysts are drawing parallels with the history of Rocket Lab (RKLB) in 2021, warning that the hype surrounding the space giant could turn into a classic trap for retail investors.
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX conducted the largest initial public offering in history. The offering price was $135 per share, valuing the company at approximately $1.75 trillion. On the very first day of trading on the Nasdaq, the shares closed above the offering price, fueling crowd enthusiasm. However, according to several experts, this widespread optimism is precisely the warning sign.
Deja Vu of 2021: History Repeats Itself
The situation surrounding SpaceX is painfully reminiscent of the Rocket Lab case, which went public in 2021. Back then, investors eagerly bought up shares, believing in a bright space future. However, as practice shows, euphoria is often followed by a harsh reality check. According to analysis, RKLB shares crashed 82.8% from their 2021 all-time highs to their 2022 lows. Retail investors, chasing the "dream," ultimately faced a harsh reality.
Now, according to analysts, the scenario is repeating itself exactly: the same space narrative, the same promises of a grand future, a record-breaking trillion-dollar valuation, and the same unbridled hype. The key difference is scale. SpaceX is much larger, and the market "overheating" around it is estimated to be even stronger. This makes betting on SPCX not just risky, but potentially more dangerous than in the case of Rocket Lab.
Bearish Signal Amidst the Hype
The market is already sending initial bearish signals. Despite the successful listing, SPCX's valuation is beginning to decline, which is a classic sign not of growth, but of the hype being exhausted. Instead of chasing one of the most expensive IPOs in history, investors should learn the lesson that history has already taught them with Rocket Lab. Space euphoria may initially drive up prices, but then it can crash them with equal force, leaving those who succumbed to the general frenzy with losses.
My professional opinion: The space technology market is a marathon, not a sprint. The current hype around SpaceX is a classic example of FOMO (fear of missing out), which often precedes a correction. Investors should exercise extreme caution and not give in to emotional narratives. History teaches us that the loudest IPOs often become the peaks from which a long downward journey begins.