June 17 — a turning point for Bitcoin: analysis of the first Fed meeting under Warsh
June 17 could become a key date for the cryptocurrency market, although a rate cut at this Fed meeting should not be expected. Against the backdrop of accelerating US inflation to 4.2% — the first time since May 2023 — and ongoing geopolitical risks, the regulator is likely to maintain a hawkish stance. However, as analysis shows, this does not rule out the potential for Bitcoin to move toward the $67,000 mark in the coming weeks.
Inflation, Oil, and Geopolitics: A Triple Blow
The rise in US inflation is an alarming signal. The main driver here is high oil prices, which remain above a painful threshold for the market amid tensions between the US and Iran. The discussed conflict resolution deal, based on the published memorandum, appears more like a concession from Washington. Iran retains its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, while gaining the unfreezing of $24 billion and the lifting of sanctions. For markets, this could provide short-term positivity, but large capital is likely to use the rise to lock in profits.
The key factor is oil. If the Strait of Hormuz opens and prices decline, inflationary pressure will ease, and the situation could change dramatically. For now, we see the Fed caught between the need to fight inflation and the risks of a recession.
The Warsh Scenario and Bitcoin's Reaction
Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair will most likely pass without a rate change — the probability of a cut in June is estimated at just 5%. A sharp easing with inflation above 4% would be a political mistake, capable of triggering a rise in bond yields. A hawkish tone in words is expected, coupled with technical easing in practice: changing the Fed's balance sheet structure through selling short-term and buying long-term securities. This lowers yields without activating the printing press.
On the day of the meeting, a false downward move is likely (minus 1.5–2% for the S&P 500) due to a hawkish tone at the press conference, followed by a recovery to neutral or slightly positive levels by the close. Next: July — a pause with a hawkish tone, September — market preparation for normalization (35–40% probability of a cut with inflation around 3.7–3.8%), December — the first 25 basis point cut with a 60–65% probability. The main risk to this forecast is a new escalation in the Middle East and oil above $100.
Bitcoin, as shown by the history of the last five Fed meetings, reacts unpredictably (three declines, two rises). After testing the $60,000 zone, the asset began a recovery. Holding the $62,000 level opened up potential for a move toward $67,000 in the coming weeks. However, this should be viewed as a local bounce rather than a trend reversal. Based on historical cycles, the market bottom may form closer to autumn.
My expert assessment: Until the Fed begins a real easing cycle, the market will remain volatile. Bitcoin could show local growth to $67,000, but a sustained bullish trend requires either clear signals of rate cuts or a weakening of inflationary pressure. Until December, we face a period of consolidation and cautious trading.